Titans' No. 1 Pick Odds Fall to 18% After First Win Over Colts

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Tennessee's No. 1 Pick Odds Fall to 18% After Beating the Colts

The Titans' chances of getting the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft fell to about 18% in Kalshi's Team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft market, as of Oct 21, after a 26-20 comeback over the Indianapolis Colts on Oct 18. The win was their first of the season, moving Tennessee to 1-5 and out of the league's winless group, according to The Tennessean.

Tennessee's implied probability fell from 24% to 18% over three days, a drop of about 6 percentage points. Miami now leads the market at about 43%, per Kalshi, and the Chargers also gained.

The timing points to the win: one victory reduces Tennessee's chance of finishing with the league's worst record. No source states why traders sold, so the link remains the market's apparent reaction rather than a confirmed cause.

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Miami Takes Over as Favorite While Tennessee Watches the Standings

Two teams remain winless. Miami sat at 0-5 during its bye, while the Chargers fell to 0-6 after losing to Kansas City. The Chargers hold the top spot in the current draft order because the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker favors them over Miami (.551 vs .615), leaving the Dolphins at No. 2, The Tennessean reported. Traders still price Miami well ahead of Los Angeles for the eventual No. 1 slot.

Tennessee's remaining schedule includes one more game against the Colts, two against the Jaguars, plus Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, Washington, Las Vegas and a return trip to Houston, per the NFL schedule. Another Titans win would likely push Tennessee lower, while losses paired with a first win by Miami or the Chargers would likely restore ground. Mock drafts already tie the top pick to prospects such as Oklahoma State QB Drew Mestemaker, whom one October mock sends to the Dolphins.

Live market odds

1 venue

Team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

TennesseeIn this story

15%

Kalshi6.25x16¢

Arizona

3%

Kalshi33.33x3¢

Atlanta

2%

Kalshi50.00x2¢

Carolina

2%

Kalshi50.00x2¢

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Readers tracking every team can follow the full 2027 first overall pick market. The next test for Miami comes in Week 7 on Oct 25 at the Jets, its first game after the bye, per the NFL schedule.