Court Removes Green Party Spoiler Twice, Lifting Brooks to 84% in PA-07

Bob Brooks, the Democratic nominee in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, holds an 84% implied probability of winning the PA-07 House race, according to prediction market averages as of early September 2026. That number moved 8 percentage points in three days after a Pennsylvania state court removed Green Party candidate Andrew Tupone from the Lehigh Valley ballot, then upheld that removal when the decision was challenged. The double ruling eliminated the vote-splitting risk that had kept Brooks's odds suppressed for weeks, not any shift in fundraising or polling.

Kalshi lists the contract at 80%; PredictIt at 88%. The 8-point spread between platforms reflects genuine disagreement among trader pools about residual competitive risk.

Prediction-market view

Live prices, venue by venue

Compare the latest YES price at each venue. Check market rules, liquidity, and fees before trading.

Bob Brooks (D)

Consensus YES price across 4 venues

81%average

Polymarket USBest YES price81¢Polymarket82¢Kalshi83¢PredictIt88¢

Ryan Mackenzie (R)

Consensus YES price across 4 venues

18%average

PolymarketBest YES price17¢Kalshi18¢Polymarket US20¢PredictIt29¢

Current new-user offer · Polymarket US

Deposit $10, get $50Code PRED

New users only. Eligibility restrictions and terms apply.

View current offer

---

How Removing Andrew Tupone Twice Shifted PA-07 Overnight

Green Party candidates in suburban swing districts like Lehigh Valley historically pull 2 to 4 percent of the vote, almost entirely from the Democratic column. In a district where general elections are decided by single-digit margins, that bleed can flip outcomes. Traders tracking PA-07 knew this. Market update logs explicitly flagged third-party votes as a live concern in July and August.

A Pennsylvania court removed Tupone from the ballot on substantive grounds. When the decision was challenged, the court upheld the removal a second time. Two rulings reaching the same conclusion make reinstatement before November deeply unlikely, and the legal path for Tupone to reappear on the ballot is, for practical purposes, closed.

The market responded accordingly. Before the rulings, Democratic Party sat in the low-to-mid 70s. The first removal nudged the price upward. The second pushed it to 84%. An 8-point move in three days is large for a House race contract, but the catalyst was binary: a candidate was either on the ballot or not. That binary resolved in Brooks's favor, twice.

---

Are There Polls for the PA-07 House Race in 2026?

No public, district-level polling for PA-07 has surfaced in 2026. This is normal. Down-ballot House races in Pennsylvania rarely attract independent pollsters unless the district is a top-tier national target. Internal campaign polls almost certainly exist for both candidates but have not been released.

The closest proxy is the generic congressional ballot. Democrats hold a 6-point lead in battleground districts nationally, according to aggregated survey data. That generic advantage does not map one-to-one onto PA-07, but it confirms that the national environment favors Democratic House candidates in swing seats this cycle.

Without district-specific polls, prediction markets are the only real-time gauge of this race. The 84% implied probability for Brooks reflects a market that sees a Democratic-leaning national environment, no spoiler on the ballot, and an incumbent Republican who has not converted a $4.36M war chest into a clear edge.

---

The Case Against Brooks: Why 84% Could Be Too High

Mackenzie has real advantages the market may be underweighting. He has raised $4.36 million to Brooks's $2.39 million, a gap that funds television advertising, voter contact, and turnout operations in the final eight weeks. Incumbency in the U.S. House carries a well-documented structural advantage: name recognition, constituent service credit, and franking privileges that challengers cannot replicate.

Brooks won his primary with 41% of the vote in a contested field on May 19, which means 59% of Democratic primary voters initially preferred someone else. Consolidation is likely but not guaranteed, particularly if any primary rival withholds an endorsement. Mackenzie, by contrast, ran unopposed.

The fundraising gap also matters disproportionately in the final weeks. If Mackenzie concentrates spending on late-breaking persuasion ads while Brooks stretches a thinner budget across both persuasion and turnout, the cash disparity could compress the margin. A 16-point implied probability spread (84% vs. 16%) leaves little room for an October surprise, a weak debate performance, or a localized scandal to shift the race.

The 8-point Kalshi-to-PredictIt spread (80% vs. 88%) also suggests the two platforms' trader pools disagree on how much residual risk remains. Kalshi's lower price implies its traders see more competitive uncertainty than PredictIt's.

---

What Resolves This Market and Where It Stands Now

The PA-07 House winner contract resolves on November 4, 2026, one day after Election Day. With eight weeks remaining, the race is priced as a strong Democratic lean, not a lock.

The Tupone removal was the cleanest catalyst prediction markets have processed in this race: a discrete, legally settled event that directly subtracted a quantifiable risk. That makes the 8-point move defensible on its merits. Whether Brooks is worth 84% or something closer to Kalshi's 80% depends on whether his fundraising deficit limits his ability to hold the advantage the ballot change gave him.

For live pricing and contract details, see the PA-07 House winner odds hub.