Defiance Act Falls to 28% as House Judiciary Silence Kills Momentum

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The Defiance Act Already Won the Senate. So Why Are Its Odds Cratering?

The Defiance Act cleared the United States Senate on January 13, 2026, without a single dissenting vote. In a chamber that struggles to agree on naming post offices, unanimous passage of a bill targeting nonconsensual sexually explicit deepfakes was a genuinely rare event. On June 24, OpenAI became the first AI company to formally endorse the legislation, giving Senators Dick Durbin and Lindsey Graham an industry ally in their push to get the bill across the finish line.

None of it has mattered. Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket now price the Defiance Act at a 28% implied probability of becoming law by December 31, 2026, down 8 percentage points from 37% just three days ago. Kalshi prices the contract at 25%; Polymarket at 32%. The spread between platforms is consistent: both are moving in the same direction. As recently as late June, the bill sat near 55%, meaning more than half that implied probability has evaporated in under three weeks.

The surface-level story is confusing: bipartisan support, zero Senate opposition, AI-industry backing. But zoom into the House Judiciary Committee and the picture sharpens immediately.

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House Judiciary Committee Is Where the Defiance Act Goes to Die

Here is the proof point that makes the 28% price intelligible: the Senate passed S. 1837 unanimously on January 13, 2026, and in the six months since, the House Judiciary Committee has not scheduled a single markup or hearing for the companion bill, H.R. 3562. A bill with zero Senate opposition is dying in procedural silence.

This is not an anomaly. The House Judiciary Committee has historically served as a bottleneck for tech-adjacent legislation, absorbing bills into subcommittee review cycles that outlast the congressional calendar. The committee's jurisdiction over intellectual property, civil liberties, and digital content means the Defiance Act competes for bandwidth with dozens of other measures, many of which carry stronger lobbying coalitions or direct leadership interest. Chairman-level prioritization dictates the schedule, and the absence of even a hearing as of late March was already flagged as a warning sign. Four months later, nothing has changed.

The calendar math is unforgiving. For the Defiance Act to become law by the December 31 resolution date, it would need a committee markup, a House floor vote, and a presidential signature. Congress faces a compressed fall schedule with midterm election dynamics, appropriations fights, and a potential August recess eating away at floor time. Each week without committee action reduces the viable legislative pathway.

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The Bull Case for the Defiance Act: Why 28% Might Be Too Cheap

The strongest argument against the current market consensus rests on three pillars, each of which carries genuine weight.

First, unanimous Senate passage is not just a talking point. It represents real political capital. Any House member who votes against this bill would be opposing legislation that every sitting senator, Republican and Democrat, supported. That is a difficult vote to explain in a campaign ad during a midterm year, particularly on an issue as visceral as nonconsensual deepfake pornography.

Second, OpenAI's endorsement could unlock lobbying resources that House offices actually respond to. Tech companies spend heavily on congressional engagement, and a coordinated push from AI-industry players could move the committee calendar in ways that grassroots advocacy alone cannot. The endorsement arrived on June 24, and its downstream effects on House lobbying efforts may not yet be visible in public scheduling.

Third, the Defiance Act is a strong candidate for attachment as a rider to must-pass legislation. Defense authorization bills, omnibus spending packages, and other end-of-year vehicles routinely carry bipartisan provisions that lack standalone floor time. A bill with unanimous Senate support and industry backing is exactly the type of measure that gets tucked into a larger package during a December lame-duck session.

Historical precedent supports this. Multiple bipartisan bills that stalled in committee during the 117th and 118th Congresses eventually became law through attachment to omnibus vehicles. The probability of this pathway is difficult to quantify, but it exists and likely accounts for a meaningful share of the remaining 28%.

The bull case is real, but it depends on variables that are hard to observe in real time: private lobbying conversations, leadership horse-trading, and omnibus composition decisions that typically solidify in November or December.

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Track the Defiance Act's Odds in Real Time

The Defiance Act sits at 28% implied probability, its lowest recorded level on this contract. The 8-point drop over three days reflects a market that has shifted from "probably not but plausible" to "unlikely unless something structural changes." The key signal to watch: any announcement from the House Judiciary Committee regarding a hearing or markup for H.R. 3562. That single event would likely trigger a sharp repricing, given how much of the current discount is attributable to committee inaction.

Prediction-market view

Live prices, venue by venue

Compare the latest YES price at each venue. Check market rules, liquidity, and fees before trading.

DEFIANCE Act

Consensus YES price across 2 venues

3%average

PolymarketBest YES price3.6¢Kalshi4.5¢

College sports federalization

Consensus YES price across 1 venues

47%average

KalshiBest YES price47¢

ADS-B revenue-use restriction

Consensus YES price across 1 venues

28%average

KalshiBest YES price29¢

Insulin cost cap

Consensus YES price across 1 venues

36%average

KalshiBest YES price60¢

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The 7-point spread between Kalshi at 25% and Polymarket at 32% also bears monitoring. If that gap widens further, it may indicate that one platform's traders have information the other's do not, or it may simply reflect differing user bases and risk appetites. Either way, the direction on both platforms is the same: down, and accelerating.

With fewer than six months until resolution, the Defiance Act's fate rests entirely with a House committee that has shown no public urgency. Markets are pricing that silence correctly. The question is whether they are pricing it too aggressively, leaving room for a late-session rescue that has happened before in Congress and will happen again.