Which bills will become law in 2026?
Live prediction market odds for Which bills will become law in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give Export-control chip security about a 59.8% chance. AI-chip export licensing follows at 39.5%, Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions follows at 25.0%, and Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act follows at 20.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.1 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes has become law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An example of this is S. 1837 (119th) — “DEFIANCE Act of 2025.” The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the S. 1837 (119th) — “DEFIANCE Act of 2025.” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Various bills across multiple sectors, including technology, housing, and environmental policy, are under consideration. Each bill addresses specific issues that could have lasting impacts on society.
Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Factors influencing these opinions include political dynamics, public support, and legislative priorities.
Political events such as elections, committee hearings, and lobbying efforts can significantly affect the chances of a bill passing. Changes in party control or public sentiment can also shift the legislative agenda.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Export-control chip security: 60.5¢ on Kalshi, 59.0¢ on Polymarket; AI-chip export licensing: 39.5¢ on Kalshi, 39.5¢ on Polymarket; Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions: 25.0¢ on Kalshi; Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act: 20.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
