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Live prediction market odds for Which bills will become law in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket

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Which bills will become law in 2026?

2026-12-31

Best price · tap to trade

College sports federalization47¢2.13xKalshiAI-chip export licensing30¢3.33xKalshiInsulin cost cap60¢1.67xKalshi
Compare all 29 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give College sports federalization about a 47.0% chance. AI-chip export licensing follows at 37.0%, Insulin cost cap follows at 35.5%, and ADS-B revenue-use restriction follows at 27.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 18.0 percentage points.

Traders give College sports federalization about a 47.0% chance. AI-chip export licensing follows at 37.0%, Insulin cost cap follows at 35.5%, and ADS-B revenue-use restriction follows at 27.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 18.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking which bills will become law in 2026. The outcome of this event will influence various sectors, shaping policy and funding priorities for years to come.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
CS
College sports federalization
single venue47%
Kalshi47¢
—
Kalshi2.13x47¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
47.0%45¢47¢53¢55¢
AE
AI-chip export licensing
37%
Kalshi30¢
Polymarket61¢
Kalshi3.33x30¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
28.0%28¢30¢70¢72¢
PolymarketPolymarket
46.0%31¢61¢39¢69¢
IC
Insulin cost cap
single venue36%
Kalshi60¢
—
Kalshi1.67x60¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
35.5%11¢60¢40¢89¢
AR
ADS-B revenue-use restriction
single venue28%
Kalshi29¢
—
Kalshi3.45x29¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
27.5%26¢29¢71¢74¢
EC
Export-control chip security
25%
Kalshi27¢
Polymarket27¢
Kalshi3.70x27¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
24.0%24¢27¢73¢76¢
PolymarketPolymarket
25.0%23¢27¢73¢77¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Smart Trade Router

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¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Library of Congress
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oraclecongress.govConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread18.0%
Platforms2
Candidates29
Leader

College sports federalization

47.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Which bills will become law in 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes has become law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

An example of this is S. 1837 (119th) — “DEFIANCE Act of 2025.” The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.

Resolution Oracles
Library of Congress
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the S. 1837 (119th) — “DEFIANCE Act of 2025.” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oraclecongress.govConsensus of Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

What types of bills are being considered for law in 2026?

Various bills across multiple sectors, including technology, housing, and environmental policy, are under consideration. Each bill addresses specific issues that could have lasting impacts on society.

How do prediction markets determine the likelihood of a bill becoming law?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Factors influencing these opinions include political dynamics, public support, and legislative priorities.

What role do political events play in shaping the outcome of these bills?

Political events such as elections, committee hearings, and lobbying efforts can significantly affect the chances of a bill passing. Changes in party control or public sentiment can also shift the legislative agenda.

What does the Which bills will become law in 2026 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Which bills will become law in 2026 odds?

The latest available prices are College sports federalization: 47.0¢ on Kalshi; AI-chip export licensing: 28.0¢ on Kalshi, 46.0¢ on Polymarket; Insulin cost cap: 35.5¢ on Kalshi; ADS-B revenue-use restriction: 27.5¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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