Defiance Act Hits 41% in 2026 Bills Market, Nearly Matching Clarity Act

---

A Deepfake Victim Bill Just Closed a 10-Point Gap on Trump's Crypto Overhaul

The U.S. Senate unanimously passed the DEFIANCE Act on January 13, 2026, making it one of the few pieces of legislation this Congress to clear a chamber without a single dissenting vote. Six months later, that procedural head start is showing up in prediction market pricing in ways that would have seemed implausible at the start of the year.

The Defiance Act, a narrowly scoped bill creating a federal civil cause of action for victims of nonconsensual AI-generated deepfake imagery, now trades at 41% implied probability of becoming law in 2026, according to the multi-platform "Which bills will become law in 2026?" market tracked on Kalshi and Polymarket. That is a 10-percentage-point surge over just three days, up from 31%. The bill's period low sat at 18%, meaning it has gained 23 points from its floor.

Meanwhile, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, backed by the Trump administration and armed with $1.94 million in prediction market volume, has slid to 38%. That figure is down from a February peak above 80%, according to Prediction News. A niche victim-protection bill now trades within three points of a landmark financial regulatory framework. That inversion deserves scrutiny.

---

Live Odds: Defiance Act vs. Clarity Act in the 2026 Bills Market

The prediction market snapshot as of July 28 tells a story of converging fates. The Defiance Act sits at 41%, gaining. The Clarity Act sits at 38%, falling. The two lines are trending toward a crossover that would have seemed implausible when the crypto bill passed the House with bipartisan support in July 2025.

Prediction-market view

Live prices, venue by venue

Compare the latest YES price at each venue. Check market rules, liquidity, and fees before trading.

DEFIANCE Act

Consensus YES price across 2 venues

3%average

PolymarketBest YES price3.6¢Kalshi4.5¢

College sports federalization

Consensus YES price across 1 venues

47%average

KalshiBest YES price47¢

ADS-B revenue-use restriction

Consensus YES price across 1 venues

28%average

KalshiBest YES price29¢

Insulin cost cap

Consensus YES price across 1 venues

36%average

KalshiBest YES price60¢

Current new-user offer · Kalshi

Get a $35 trading bonusCode PRED35

New users only. Eligibility restrictions and terms apply.

View current offer

Notably, platform-level pricing diverges on the Defiance Act. Kalshi prices it at 18%, while Polymarket prices it at 64%. This spread is wide enough to undermine any consensus reading, and traders should treat the aggregated 41% figure as a rough midpoint rather than a settled market view. The divergence itself may reflect different trader demographics: Polymarket's user base skews toward politically engaged crypto-native participants who may weight the Defiance Act's Senate passage more heavily, while Kalshi's broader retail base may be discounting House passage odds.

The Clarity Act's decline is equally telling. Sen. Tim Scott's Banking Committee reported the bill out with amendments on June 1, 2026, placing it on the Senate Legislative Calendar. But it has not moved since. The House Digital Assets Subcommittee held a field hearing in New York on July 17 to mark one year since House passage, a celebration that doubled as an implicit admission the bill is stalled. Kalshi bettors priced a 67.8% chance the Senate would hold a recorded vote before the August recess as of July 19, but even that optimism has not translated into confidence about final enactment.

---

What's Driving the Defiance Act Surge

The 10-point jump over three days demands a catalyst explanation, and the honest answer is that no single confirmed breaking event from the past 72 hours fully accounts for the move. Research did not surface a new co-sponsorship announcement, committee markup, or floor scheduling decision dated within the July 25-28 window.

What the research does confirm is a structural argument that has been building for months: the Senate's unanimous passage on January 13 gave the Defiance Act a procedural position the Clarity Act still cannot match. The bill cleared the Senate with 100-0 support during a period when a high-profile AI deepfake crisis involving Grok made victim protection a front-page issue. That kind of unanimity is rare and durable; it signals there is no organized Senate opposition waiting to resurface.

The more plausible reading of the 10-point move is that traders are repricing the Clarity Act's collapse as a relative tailwind for the Defiance Act. In a market where multiple bills compete for floor time and political attention, the crypto bill's stall frees legislative bandwidth. The House GOP's broader scheduling gridlock, driven by disputes over the SAVE Act, has paradoxically helped smaller, bipartisan bills that can pass on consent or suspension of the rules. The Defiance Act, with zero Senate opposition and a straightforward victim-protection framing, is exactly the type of bill that can move through a congested calendar without consuming floor time.

---

The Strongest Case Against the Defiance Act

A 41% probability still implies a 59% chance of failure, and the bear case is grounded in House dynamics. The Senate's unanimous vote means nothing if the House Judiciary Committee does not schedule a markup. As Prediction Hunt reported, the Defiance Act fell to 28% in mid-July when House Judiciary showed no signs of advancing the bill.

The House GOP's legislative calendar is a bottleneck for everything that is not a must-pass appropriations bill or a leadership priority. The Defiance Act lacks a powerful industry lobby pushing for floor time. Unlike the Clarity Act, which has coordinated advocacy from crypto exchanges, venture capital firms, and trade associations, the Defiance Act's coalition is built around advocacy groups and individual victims. That asymmetry matters when the Speaker's office is deciding which bills deserve scarce floor hours.

There is also a technical risk: the House could pass its own version with amendments, sending the bill to conference committee. A conference report would need to pass both chambers again before the December 31 resolution date. With fewer than five months remaining and Congress likely to recess for the midterm elections in October, the window for a multi-step legislative process is narrow. The market is pricing this uncertainty correctly. The Defiance Act has a real path. It also has a real clock problem.

---

What This Market Is Getting Right, and What It Might Be Missing

The convergence between the Defiance Act and the Clarity Act reflects a broader truth about 2026 lawmaking: political salience and industry backing do not guarantee legislative velocity. The Clarity Act has money, lobbying muscle, and White House support. The Defiance Act has a unanimous Senate vote and a clean political narrative. At this point in the calendar, the latter set of assets may be more valuable.

The market's implied gap of just three points between these two bills suggests traders have recognized this dynamic. Where the market may still be mispricing risk is on the downside for the Defiance Act. The 18% reading on Kalshi implies deep skepticism about House action that the 64% Polymarket price does not share. One of these platforms is substantially wrong. Traders positioned on either side are making a bet not just on the Defiance Act's merits but on which prediction market user base is reading Congressional scheduling correctly.

Five months remain before resolution. The Defiance Act's path is simpler than the Clarity Act's, but simplicity and certainty are not the same thing. At 41%, the market is saying this bill is a real contender. The 23-point climb from its period low says the market is just now catching up to what the Senate already told us in January.