Draisaitl's 40-Goal Price Hits 91% After 18 Goals in 19 Games

Leon Draisaitl is a strong favorite to score 40 goals this season. He leads the NHL with 18 goals in 19 games after scoring twice in Edmonton's 3-1 win over the New York Rangers on Monday, Nov. 9, according to AP. In Kalshi's "NHL: Players to Record 40+ Goals" market, his contract reached 91% implied probability on Nov. 12, up from 74% three days earlier, a gain of 17 percentage points.

Live market odds

2 venues

NHL: Players to Record 40+ Goals

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Leon DraisaitlIn this story

91%

KalshiBest price1.10x91¢Polymarket1.06x94¢

Jack Eichel

95%

Polymarket1.05x95¢

Clayton Keller

94%

Polymarket1.06x94¢

Nico Hischier

94%

Polymarket1.06x94¢

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

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Draisaitl's 40-Goal Odds Rise to 91% After Two-Goal Night Against the Rangers

The Rangers game produced the 18th goal of Draisaitl's season, a shorthanded empty-netter with 1:13 left. It was his sixth multi-goal game of the season, RotoWire reported. The night extended his goal streak to four games and his point streak to six. He has 36 points (18 goals, 18 assists), second in the league behind teammate Connor McDavid's 48.

The repricing tracks performance. Sources show no trade, roster change or other discrete event behind it. The arithmetic favors Draisaitl: he needs 22 more goals (40 minus 18) over roughly 63 remaining games (82 minus 19 played), a slower rate than the near goal-per-game pace he has set so far. He has four 50-goal seasons and won the Rocket Richard Trophy in 2024-25 with 52.

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Leon Draisaitl's price in the 40+ goals market, Nov. 9 to Nov. 12: 74% to 91%.

The market is pricing a strong start. Last season's injury is the main development that could reverse it.

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What Could Reverse Draisaitl's 40-Goal Pricing

Health is the documented risk. Last season a lower-body injury ended Draisaitl's regular season in March, with 35 goals through 65 games. At 91%, the price leaves little room for a missed stretch of similar length.

His finishing rate is a second pressure point. Pucks and Stats calculates that Draisaitl has scored 6.9 goals above expected, the largest gap in the league, and eight of his 18 goals have come on the power play. Even if that rate regresses, his remaining requirement sits well below his current pace. His deployment is unchanged: Edmonton Hockey Daily reports coach Mike Babcock has kept the Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl line together while shuffling other forwards.

The next test comes in Edmonton's upcoming games. Continued scoring would support the price. A scoring drought or any health report would test it. Live pricing for every contender is on the NHL 40+ goals market page.

The market data records the 17-point move. The sourced explanation for it is Draisaitl's scoring.