Who Will Win the Ljubljana Mayoral Election? Polls and Latest News

Live market odds

3 venues

Ljubljana mayoral election winner?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket and Predict.fun.

Luka MesecIn this story

29%

KalshiBest price3.45x29¢Polymarket3.33x30¢

Zoran Janković

71%

KalshiBest price1.41x71¢Polymarket1.39x72¢

Aleksandar Repić

3%

KalshiBest price100.00x1¢Polymarket58.82x1.7¢Predict.fun16.39x6.1¢

3 others under 1%Show all

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Background

Voters in Ljubljana choose a mayor on 15 November 2026. Zoran Janković, who has run the city since 2006 and leads his own list (Lista Zorana Jankovića), is seeking re-election against 14 other candidates. The main challengers include Luka Mesec of Levica, Anton Rop of Ljubljana smo vsi, Aleš Vrhovec of SDS, Klemen Boštjančič of Gibanje Svoboda and Jasmin Feratović of Pirati.

The rule that matters most is the runoff. A candidate needs more than 50% of valid votes to win outright on 15 November. Otherwise the top two candidates meet in a second round on 29 November. With a crowded field, a runoff looks likely, so the contest may come down to a head-to-head, and the market settles on the official result rather than on polls. Janković has won all six of his earlier races in the first round, so a runoff would be a first for him.

Public polls, newest first. Bases differ, so compare like with like.

Poll	Fieldwork	Base	Zoran Janković	Luka Mesec	Neither	Anton Rop
Ninamedia for Dnevnik (runoff question, Janković vs Mesec)	Oct. 12-14	All respondents (n=691)	35.2%	33.4%	23.6%	-
Ninamedia for Dnevnik (first round)	Oct. 12-14	All respondents (n=691)	34.6%	21%	-	8.2%

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Nov. 12, 2026: Mesec Trails Janković by 8.6 Points in Ljubljana Mayor Poll

Are There Polls for Luka Mesec in the Ljubljana Mayoral Race?

Yes. A Ninamedia poll published 10 Nov 2026 has incumbent Zoran Janković at 32.3% and Levica's Luka Mesec at 23.7%, an 8.6-point gap. In October the same agency had Janković at 34.6% and Mesec at 21.0%, a 13.6-point lead, so the gap closed by 5 points in a month, according to Slovenske novice. The survey of 968 people placed Aleš Primc third at 6.8%. Anton Rop followed at 5.5%, down from 8.2% in October. Reports caution that the two polls are not fully comparable.

On Polymarket's "Ljubljana mayoral election winner?" market, Mesec's implied probability rose from 34% to 41% over three days, reaching 41% on 12 Nov. The two numbers measure different things. The poll records stated voter preference, and Janković still leads it. The market price is traders' estimate of Mesec's probability of winning the whole race, which can include a second round. A trailing candidate can carry a large win probability when a head-to-head runoff looks likely.

Will the Ljubljana Mayoral Election Go to a Runoff on 29 Nov?

The poll leaves both leaders well short of 50%. If no candidate wins more than half of valid votes on Sunday, 15 Nov, the top two meet on 29 Nov. Janković has won all six of his previous Ljubljana mayoral races in the first round, including 61.83% in 2022, so a runoff would be his first.

The candidates disagree on how Sunday will go. In the 24ur debate on 11 Nov, Janković said he expected to win outright, and Mesec predicted a runoff. Primc and Rop framed the race around the C0 canal and housing. Poll shares are not vote shares: 11.4% of respondents had not decided whether to vote. The market resolves on the official winner, so it settles on results, not on polls.

How Luka Mesec's Odds Moved After the Ninamedia Poll

Mesec's contract traded as low as 32% during this period, 9 percentage points under its 12 Nov level. The climb to 41% came over the same three days as the 10 Nov poll release. The council race is tighter than the mayoral race: Ninamedia had Janković's list at 24.2% and Levica at 21.8% (24ur). That points to a competitive Levica base behind Mesec.

A 41% price still makes Mesec the underdog. The Ljubljana mayoral election winner market shows live pricing. On 15 Nov, watch whether Janković clears 50% or whether the race goes to a 29 Nov runoff between him and Mesec.

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Earlier Updates

Nov. 9, 2026: Janković Leads Ljubljana Mayor Race at 63%, but Runoff Poll Is Tight

Zoran Janković57% → 63%▲6

On November 9, 2026, the Ljubljana mayoral race was reported as tight in a runoff scenario, even as Zoran Janković led the field. The Ninamedia poll for Dnevnik (12–14 October, n=691) had him at 34.6% in the first round against 21.0% for Luka Mesec, but in a head-to-head runoff Janković led Mesec only 35.2% to 33.4%, with 23.6% choosing neither.

Nov. 6, 2026: Janković's Ljubljana Odds Fall to 58% After Mesec Drone Row

Zoran Janković66% → 58%▼8

On Nov. 6, Luka Mesec, co-leader of Levica, said an unknown person had filmed his Ljubljana apartment with a drone, calling it politically motivated and filing a criminal complaint, and President Nataša Pirc Musar condemned the incident. Rival candidate Aleksandar Repić said he holds an "explicit" video of Mesec that he has not released, and Zoran Janković said his camp would not smear opponents.