Gavin McKenna's Calder Odds Hit 28% After First NHL Goal

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Gavin McKenna's Calder Trophy Chances Jump to 28% After First NHL Goal

Gavin McKenna's chances of winning the 2026-27 Calder Trophy rose to 28% on Polymarket in the three days ending Oct 13. Earlier, the Toronto Maple Leafs rookie had ended a scoreless start: in a 5-4 overtime win over Nashville on Oct 6, 2026, he scored his first NHL goal and added an assist. Before that, he had gone three games without a point, starting with a pointless, minus-2 debut in a 3-2 loss to Montreal on Sept 29 (NHL.com).

McKenna's Calder contract rose from about 17% to 28% over the three days ending Oct 13, a gain of roughly 11 percentage points. The 17% mark is the low for that window.

Live market odds

3 venues

Nhl 2026 27 Calder Trophy

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket and Predict.fun.

Gavin McKennaIn this story

27%

Predict.funBest price3.60x27.8¢Polymarket3.57x28¢

Ivar Stenberg

18%

Predict.funBest price6.33x15.8¢Polymarket5.88x17¢Kalshi3.57x28¢

Caleb Malhotra

2%

Polymarket22.22x4.5¢

Viggo Björck

3%

Polymarket25.64x3.9¢

Chase Reid and Carson Carels: under 1% eachShow all

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

The Nashville game started a short run of production. By Oct 9, McKenna had three points in his past two games, according to The Globe and Mail. NHL.com has video of the goal, which he scored against Juuse Saros.

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What McKenna's First Goal Shows, and What It Doesn't

The repricing rests on a two-game sample. McKenna's three points ended a slump that Toronto had magnified. Globe columnist Cathal Kelly wrote that after the debut, McKenna "looked like what he is – a skinny teenager who has zero experience playing with grown men." Kelly also wrote that his three scoreless nights became "the biggest news coming out of the team."

Two games of output show the slump is over. They do not show a season-long scoring pace. The market's 28% reflects relief that McKenna is producing, not a proven rookie season.

The sources do not explain why the repricing landed in the three days to Oct 13, several days after the Oct 6 game, so the goal should not be read as its confirmed cause.

Expectations from the bench remain high. New head coach Jim Hiller said the team is "not going to set any ceiling on him at all." Preseason coverage was more mixed: the New York Post advised bettors to fade McKenna as a Calder favorite.

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What Could Confirm or Reverse the Move

The next test is whether McKenna keeps scoring over his next several games. If he returns to the stretches without points that defined his first three appearances, the slump narrative behind the jump weakens. Traders would then have reason to pull the price back toward the 17% low. If his production holds, the case for trading above the Oct 13 level of 28% gets stronger.

Readers can track how the price responds after each game on the NHL 2026-27 Calder Trophy odds page.