Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?
Live prediction market odds for Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt and Predict.fun.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give Marine Le Pen about a 50.0% chance. David Lisnard follows at 14.3%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon follows at 12.8%, and Christine Lagarde follows at 6.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 83.6 percentage points.
KalshiPolymarket USPolymarketPredictItPredict.funBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
OpinionThe next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
PolymarketThe next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Polymarket USIf Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 French Presidential Election, including any potential runoff, this market will settle to Yes. Outcome verified from relevant government authorities. In the event that the 2027 French Presidential Election is rescheduled, this market will settle based on the results of the next French Presidential Election to be held within two years of April 18, 2027.
Predict.funThe next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Key issues include the economy, immigration, and France's position within the EU. Candidates are expected to address public concerns over security and social welfare.
The French presidential election involves a two-round system where a candidate must secure a majority to win. If no candidate achieves this in the first round, a runoff occurs between the top two candidates.
Factors include polling data, candidate debates, and public sentiment leading up to the election. Economic conditions and international events may also sway voter preferences.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Marine Le Pen: 51.5¢ on Kalshi, 46.0¢ on Polymarket, 58.5¢ on PredictIt, 52.5¢ on Polymarket US, 46.8¢ on Predict.fun; David Lisnard: 12.5¢ on Kalshi, 16.9¢ on Polymarket, 13.5¢ on Polymarket US, 22.0¢ on Predict.fun; Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 12.5¢ on Kalshi, 13.5¢ on Polymarket, 17.0¢ on PredictIt, 12.5¢ on Polymarket US, 13.5¢ on Predict.fun; Christine Lagarde: 5.5¢ on Kalshi, 7.3¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Smart money is betting against Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Smart money is betting against Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.
Trader up $276K lifetime bought $3.1K of No at 86¢
10h agoWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Trade on Polymarket US Trader up $351K lifetime sold $2.6K of No at 93¢
10h agoWill Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Trade on Polymarket US Trader up $95.3K lifetime bought $1.3K of No at 93¢
13h agoWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Trade on Polymarket US Trader up $73.3K lifetime sold $1.5K of No at 83¢
13h agoWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Trade on Polymarket US Trader up $24.3K lifetime bought $1.3K of No at 83¢
15h agoWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Trade on Polymarket US 
