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Live prediction market odds for Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt and Opinion and Predict.fun.

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Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt / Opinion / Predict.fun

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Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

2027-04-30

Best price · tap to trade

Marine Le Pen45¢2.22xKalshiÉdouard Philippe22¢4.55xKalshiJean-Luc Mélenchon14¢7.14xKalshi
Compare all 42 outcomes across 5 venues

About This Market

Traders give Marine Le Pen about a 41.7% chance. Édouard Philippe follows at 20.0%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon follows at 14.0%, and David Lisnard follows at 8.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Opinion, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 15.6 percentage points.

Traders give Marine Le Pen about a 41.7% chance. Édouard Philippe follows at 20.0%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon follows at 14.0%, and David Lisnard follows at 8.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Opinion, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 15.6 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the 2027 French presidential election. The outcome will influence France's domestic policies and its role in the European Union, making it a focal point for political analysts and voters alike.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

5 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Opinion
Predict.fun
Best price
ML
Marine Le Pen
42%
Kalshi45¢
Polymarket40¢
—
—
Predict.fun40¢
Kalshi2.22x45¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
44.0%41¢45¢55¢59¢
PolymarketPolymarket
39.5%39¢40¢60¢61¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
39.9%40¢40¢60¢61¢
ÉP
Édouard PhilippeARB
20%
Kalshi22¢
Polymarket20¢
PredictIt46¢
—
Predict.fun22¢
Kalshi4.55x22¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
20.0%19¢22¢78¢81¢
PolymarketPolymarket
20.0%19¢20¢80¢81¢
PredictItPredictIt
31.0%16¢46¢54¢84¢
OpinionOpinion
—25¢——76¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
21.3%21¢22¢78¢79¢
JM
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
14%
Kalshi14¢
Polymarket14¢
—
—
Predict.fun13¢
Kalshi7.14x14¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
14.0%12¢14¢86¢88¢
PolymarketPolymarket
14.0%13¢14¢86¢87¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
12.8%13¢13¢87¢87¢
DL
David LisnardARB
8%
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket8¢
—
—
Predict.fun5¢
Kalshi10.00x10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
8.7%7¢10¢90¢93¢
PolymarketPolymarket
8.2%8¢8¢92¢92¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
2.7%1¢5¢95¢100¢
FH
François Hollande
6%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket6¢
—
—
Predict.fun29¢
Kalshi14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
6.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.6%6¢6¢94¢95¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
14.7%0¢29¢71¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictItOpinionOpinionPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen is the leader of France's far-right National Rally party. She was convicted in 2025 for embezzling European Union funds, resulting in a five-year ban from public office. This conviction precludes her from participating in the 2027 French presidential election.

About Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe is the current Mayor of Le Havre and leader of the Horizons party. He served as Prime Minister of France from 2017 to 2020. He is a declared candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.

About Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon is the leader of La France Insoumise (LFI), a French left-wing political movement. He served as a Member of the European Parliament from 2009 to 2017 and was a deputy in the National Assembly from 2017 to 2022. Mélenchon is a key figure in French politics and is expected to be a prominent candidate in the 2027 presidential election.

About Jordan Bardella

Jordan Bardella is the president of the National Rally (RN) party and a Member of the European Parliament (MEP). He led the RN's list in the 2019 European elections and became party president in November 2022. Bardella is a key figure in the RN's strategy for the 2027 French presidential election.

About Gabriel Attal

Gabriel Attal is the Secretary General of the Renaissance party. He served as France's youngest-ever Prime Minister from January to September 2024. He is preparing for the 2027 French presidential election, promising a "major break" from previous policies.

About Dominique de Villepin

Dominique de Villepin is the honorary president of Humanist France, a political party he founded in June 2025. He served as France's Prime Minister from 2005 to 2007 under President Jacques Chirac. His recent political activities, including launching Humanist France, position him as a potential candidate in the 2027 French presidential election.

About Bruno Retailleau

Bruno Retailleau is the current president of the French political party Les Républicains (LR). He previously served as Minister of the Interior from September 2024 to October 2025. His leadership within LR and his tenure as Interior Minister position him as a significant figure in the 2027 French presidential election.

About Sarah Knafo

Sarah Knafo is a French magistrate and politician, currently serving as a Member of the European Parliament for the Reconquête party. She previously directed Éric Zemmour's 2022 presidential campaign and was elected to the European Parliament in 2024. Her candidacy in the 2027 French presidential election is significant due to her rising political influence and leadership within the Reconquête party.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
ABCAxiosCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCPoliticoReutersSemaforThe InformationThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Post
OpinionOpinion
Opinion AIinterieur.gouv.fr
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracleinterieur.gouv.frConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread15.6%
Platforms5
Candidates42
Leader

Marine Le Pen

41.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
ABCAxiosCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCPoliticoReutersSemaforThe InformationThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Post
OpinionOpinion
Primary Rule

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Resolution Oracles
Opinion AIinterieur.gouv.fr
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracleinterieur.gouv.frConsensus of Sources
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the key issues in the 2027 French presidential election?

Key issues include the economy, immigration, and France's position within the EU. Candidates are expected to address public concerns over security and social welfare.

How does the French presidential election process work?

The French presidential election involves a two-round system where a candidate must secure a majority to win. If no candidate achieves this in the first round, a runoff occurs between the top two candidates.

What factors could influence the odds in this election?

Factors include polling data, candidate debates, and public sentiment leading up to the election. Economic conditions and international events may also sway voter preferences.

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Opinion, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Marine Le Pen: 44.0¢ on Kalshi, 39.5¢ on Polymarket, 39.9¢ on Predict.fun; Édouard Philippe: 20.0¢ on Kalshi, 20.0¢ on Polymarket, 31.0¢ on PredictIt, 24.5¢ on Opinion, 21.3¢ on Predict.fun; Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 14.0¢ on Kalshi, 14.0¢ on Polymarket, 12.8¢ on Predict.fun; David Lisnard: 8.7¢ on Kalshi, 8.2¢ on Polymarket, 2.7¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Philippe's 2027 Election Odds Drop 9 Points as Centrist Split WidensPhilippe fell from 36% to 27% in three days. His rivalry with Attal is fragmenting the centrist bloc, with an August poll now placing Mélenchon in second-round contention.Sep 5, 2026Philippe Hits 36% in 2027 French Election Markets After DebateCentre-right candidate climbs 10 points in three days as traders reprice a fractured left field following the August 28 multi-candidate debate.Aug 31, 2026Philippe Hits 37% in 2027 French Presidential Markets After MEDEF DebateThe 12-point climb follows the August 28 MEDEF debate, where Philippe's moderate-right positioning contrasted sharply with Le Pen's nationalism and Mélenchon's fiscal proposals.Aug 29, 2026Bardella Drops to 8% as Le Pen Returns and Attal Campaigns HardA 9pp drop in 72 hours: Le Pen's re-entry cannibalizes Bardella's RN base while Attal's summer tour narrows the centrist runoff lane.Aug 10, 2026
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily fading David Lisnard

Smart Money Consensus$2.0K
$2.0KNo
Smart Traders Split3
3No
KalshiBuy No at 93¢Best price among US-regulated venues.

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Marine Le Pen
No$633 · 2 whales
Yes-$3.6K · 4 whales
Édouard Philippe
Yes$159 · 2 whales
No-$1.3K · 0 whales
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
No$953 · 2 whales
Yes-$280 · 0 whales

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Smart Money Feed
Full Feed

Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $54.6K lifetime sold $800 of No at 80¢

40m ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $448K lifetime sold $1.2K of Yes at 39¢

1h ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $29.1K lifetime bet $1.3K on Yes at 20¢

2h ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $448K lifetime sold $2.1K of Yes at 39¢

2h ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $448K lifetime sold $659 of Yes at 6¢

2h ago
PolymarketKalshiWill François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Trade on Kalshi →
No price history available