OpenAI Added a $500 ChatGPT Plan. Why Did Hike Odds Fall to 8%?

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Will OpenAI Increase the Cost of ChatGPT Before 2027? Market Odds Fall to 8%

Kalshi traders give an 8% chance that OpenAI increases the cost of ChatGPT before 2027, and OpenAI has not raised the $20 US price of ChatGPT Plus in the sources we found. It has, however, added a $500/month Pro 500 plan and reduced the usage allowance for new Pro 200 subscribers, according to its Help Center, which was updated about 13 hours before publication. The effective cost of the top tiers is rising while the plan most people pay for stays at $20.

On Kalshi, the "Before 2027" contract on "Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?" traded at 8% on Oct. 20, 2026. That is down from 14% three days earlier, a drop of 6 percentage points, and the lowest price in that window.

Live market odds

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Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

Before 2027In this story

8%

Kalshi12.50x8¢

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The question for traders is whether a new tier or a smaller allowance counts as a price increase.

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What OpenAI Changed: Pro 500 Added, Pro 200 Allowance Reduced, Plus Unchanged

The Help Center describes Pro 500 as a $500/month plan that includes "Ultrafast" access to GPT-6 Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol. Business Insider reported the plan's DevDay announcement in late September and described it as a $300 increase over the former $200 top tier.

Pro 200 still costs $200/month and is open to new subscribers again. New, non-grandfathered subscriptions get a lower usage allowance, which raises the price per unit of usage. Grandfathered Pro 200 users keep their previous allowance through Oct. 29, 2026, according to the Help Center.

The change continues a year of tier expansion. In April, OpenAI added a $100/month Pro tier with 5x the Codex usage of Plus, The Verge reported. Plus has held at $20 throughout.

Regional pricing has moved. In June, mobile Plus in Turkey rose from 499.99 TL to 999.99 TL and Pro rose from 5,299.99 TL to 9,999.99 TL, according to LOG and Teknolojituru. Web Plus stayed at $20, and the reports found no official OpenAI statement. These were local-currency changes, not a US list-price hike.

We could not establish why the contract fell. One possible explanation: traders may be pricing a Plus-style headline hike rather than tier additions or allowance cuts. We did not have the market's full resolution rules, and whether Pro 500 or the reduced Pro 200 allowance qualifies as "increasing the cost of ChatGPT" depends on them.

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What Could Move the OpenAI Price Hike Odds Next

• A change to Plus. Any move off $20 on OpenAI's pricing page or Help Center is the clearest catalyst for a reversal.
• The Oct. 29 grandfathering cutoff. After that date, existing Pro 200 users lose their prior allowance. Further limit cuts or tier changes would test how traders read the rules.
• Resolution clarity. A statement from Kalshi on whether new tiers or allowance changes count could reprice the contract in either direction.

The contract resolves before 2027. Live pricing is on the OpenAI ChatGPT price increase market page. It stood at 8% on Oct. 20, 2026, the day after OpenAI's latest Help Center update.