Solana $100 Dip Odds Hit 70% as ETF Outflows Reach Nine Days
1 venue62%Down9 ptsfrom 70% when published, 6 days ago
- Traders now see a Solana drop to $100 this month as the likely outcome, with the token only a few dollars above that line.
Solana is likely to dip to $100 in October, according to traders in the "What price will Solana hit in October?" market on Polymarket. SOL traded near $104.36 on Oct 17, about 4% above the threshold and down more than 13% from its early-October level near $122. US spot Solana ETFs have posted nine straight days of outflows. The ↓ 100 contract climbed from 54% to 70% over three days, a 16-point move.
Solana $100 Dip Odds Reach 70% in the "What Price Will Solana Hit in October?" Market
The contract resolves on a touch, not a monthly close. Source reporting on the market says it settles on Binance SOL/USDT 1-minute lows, so one brief wick to $100 before Nov. 1 would pay YES. On Oct 17 that took a move of roughly $4.36.
Live market odds
2 venuesWhat price will Solana hit in October?
Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket and Predict.fun.
↓ 100In this story
62%↑ 200
2%↓ 70
2%Nine Straight Days of US Spot Solana ETF Outflows Add Pressure
US spot Solana ETFs recorded net outflows of $9.82 million on Oct 15, their ninth consecutive day of withdrawals, according to ChainCatcher. The streak followed $24.8 million in net outflows during the Oct 5-9 week. CoinMarketCap discusses the ETF outflows as a headwind for SOL.
The dollar amounts are small. Total net assets in the funds stand near $1.68 billion, so the Oct 15 withdrawal equals well under 1% of holdings. Flows were also mixed within the product group: DigitalToday reported Grayscale bought $20.2 million of SOL while VanEck saw selling. The outflows ran alongside the price decline, but no source we reviewed says they caused it.
The broader tape was risk-off. Public weekly recaps put SOL's decline for the week of Oct 5-11 at roughly 8% to 10%, to around $110, with Bitcoin and Ether also lower, per CoinStats. On Oct 16, SOL dropped 2.77% and closed below its 50-day EMA near $107.13, per TradingView News. TradingKey flagged sharp swings in SOL again on Oct 17.
What Could Confirm or Reverse the $100 Call Next
Technical traders watch $100 and the 200-day EMA, which sits near $97.95, as support. Because those two levels are close together, a wick to $100 is the first step of any test of the longer-term average. Below that, TradingView News cites roughly $83.50 as a breach target.
Confirmation: any 1-minute Binance print at $100 before month-end settles the contract. A 10th or later outflow day in the next ETF flow reports would extend the institutional pressure.
Reversal: a return to net ETF inflows, or a recovery above resistance near $107, would widen the gap traders need closed in the final two weeks of October.
The next dated catalyst is the Alpenglow consensus upgrade, scheduled for Oct 21 at epoch 1064. It targets roughly 150ms finality. Because validator votes move off-chain, reported transaction counts may fall sharply, and headline network metrics could look weaker even if activity holds up. Its effect on price is unknown.
Live pricing for every strike sits on the Solana October price targets market page. The contract resolves on Nov. 1, 2026, based on October trading.
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The story so far: What price will Solana hit in October?
2 updates · Oct 19 – Oct 21
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