Bitcoin $100K Odds Fall to 20% After Hot CPI Revives Fed Hike Fears

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Polymarket Odds of Bitcoin Hitting $100K in 2026 Fall to 20% After Hot CPI

Bitcoin hitting $100,000 in 2026 looks less likely after the Oct. 14 CPI report. In Polymarket's "How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?" market, the "↑ 100,000" contract fell from 28% on Oct. 14 to 20% on Oct. 17, a drop of 8 percentage points. September CPI showed headline inflation at 3.7% year over year against a 3.6% forecast, reviving fears of another Fed hike. Bitcoin fell from near $84,000 to about $81,000, so it needs a rally of roughly 22% to 24% in under 11 weeks to reach six figures.

The selling came as US spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to post outflows.

Live market odds

2 venues

How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket and Opinion.

↑ 100,000In this story

21%

Polymarket4.76x21¢

↑ 180,000

1%

Polymarket76.92x1.3¢

↑ 160,000

2%

Polymarket55.56x1.8¢

↑ 140,000

31%

PolymarketBest price35.71x2.8¢Opinion1.67x59.9¢

↑ 200,000: under 1% eachShow all

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What Moved the Bitcoin $100K Market: CPI, Fed Hike Fears, ETF Outflows

The CPI miss came after the Fed raised rates in September to a 3.75%-4% range. That timing makes another move at the Oct. 27-28 FOMC meeting a live question. Headline inflation also accelerated from 3.4% in August, and core CPI rose 0.3% month over month against 0.2% expected. Large crypto liquidations were reported on Oct. 14, including $218 million in long positions over four hours.

ETF flows added pressure. US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $261 million on Oct. 14 and about $145 million in net terms for the week through Oct. 15, according to Crypto Briefing. That followed $681 million of outflows the prior week. CoinDesk reported the outflows were continuing on Oct. 16 even as Bitcoin climbed back above $82,000.

An AI-led equity selloff ran in parallel. The Nasdaq fell about 2% on Oct. 16, CoreWeave dropped more than 20% on the week, and South Korea's Kospi lost 6% in a single session, as Yahoo Finance's weekly wrap detailed. WTI crude near $101 and a 10-year Treasury yield around 5.1% tightened conditions further. The sources show these moves happened at the same time as the contract's decline. They do not isolate a single cause.

Prominent bulls have not changed their calls, and the market now prices their view as less likely. Michael Saylor says a new bull market has begun and that $100,000 will return, though he has given no timeframe. Bernstein holds a $125,000 December target. Standard Chartered says its $100,000 target may prove too low if ETF inflows rebound. Bitcoin is down over 2% so far in October and on track for a second straight losing week, per Investing.com.

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Next Test for Bitcoin $100K Odds: The Oct 27-28 FOMC Decision

The Fed announces its decision on Oct. 28. A hike or a hawkish signal would support the repricing to 20%. A hold paired with a dovish tone would undercut the hike fears that followed the CPI report. September PCE data arrives on Oct. 29 and offers a second read on inflation.

ETF flows are the secondary signal to watch. Standard Chartered's bull case depends explicitly on inflows returning, so a reversal of the recent outflows would carry direct weight. Readers can track every strike in the How high will Bitcoin get in 2026? market as those data points land.