Ted Cruz's Supreme Court Odds Fall to 4% as Alito Rules Out Retiring

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Will Ted Cruz Be the Next Supreme Court Justice? Market Odds Fall to 4%

Ted Cruz is unlikely to be the next Supreme Court justice, with Kalshi's "Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?" market pricing him at 4% on Nov. 6. The vacancy his nomination would require has not appeared: Justice Samuel Alito, 76, told Fox News he will not retire. Democrats also won the Senate in the Nov. 3 midterms and take the chamber on Jan. 3, 2027. Cruz himself has said his answer to a seat is "not just no, but hell no."

Cruz's implied probability fell from 11% to 4% over three days, a drop of about 7 percentage points. The 4% price on Nov. 6 is the lowest level of that period.

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Why the Alito Statement and Democratic Senate Hurt Cruz's Path

A Cruz nomination depended on two conditions: an open seat, and a Republican Senate able to confirm him. In the days after the election, both conditions weakened.

Alito told Fox News he is committed to serving through the end of the current term, which runs to about late June 2027. Bloomberg Law reported that he repeated he will not step down over the election result. ABC News sources said neither Alito nor Justice Clarence Thomas, 78, is expected to leave this year.

The Senate result matters because of timing. Republicans control the chamber only until Jan. 3, so the lame-duck session was the main route for Trump to confirm a conservative successor. The Washington Post and Reuters reported growing pressure on both justices to retire in that window. Reuters quoted Cornell's Michael Dorf, who called a politically timed retirement unlikely absent a health crisis.

Trump's Oct. 27 rally in Lubbock, Texas did not hold the price up. There, according to USA Today's live coverage, he again floated Cruz for a future vacancy and joked that both parties would confirm Cruz unanimously to get him out of the Senate. His public record points the other way. In an April 2026 Wall Street Journal interview, he said he declined first-term vacancies three times to stay in politics. In September, on Sean Hannity's podcast, he gave his "hell no."

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Are There Polls for Ted Cruz as the Next Supreme Court Justice?

The research for this article found no public polling on Cruz as a Supreme Court pick. Justices are chosen by presidential nomination and Senate confirmation, not by voters. That leaves the 4% Kalshi price as the only live gauge of his chances.

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What Could Change Ted Cruz's Supreme Court Odds Next

The next fixed date is Jan. 3, 2027, when the Democratic-controlled Senate is seated. If no vacancy opens before then, the lame-duck path closes for good. According to Reason/Volokh coverage, the lame-duck agenda has shifted toward lower-court nominees for the 5th, 8th and 10th Circuits.

The clearest event that could reverse the move is a vacancy. That could come from a change in Alito's stance or an unexpected departure. Alito was treated for dehydration at a March 2026 event, the Supreme Court said, and sources differ on whether it amounted to a hospitalization. Thomas has given no public signal that he plans to retire.

A new Trump endorsement, or any softening of Cruz's refusal, would also bear on the price. Cruz's Senate term runs to January 2031, so he has no electoral reason to leave his seat. Traders can follow the full field on the next Supreme Court justice market. The market resolves Jan. 21, 2029.