Who Will Be the 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee? Polls and Latest News

Live market odds

5 venues

2028 US Presidential Republican Nominee

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt and Predict.fun.

Ron DeSantisIn this story

15%

PolymarketBest price6.71x14.9¢Kalshi6.25x16¢PredictIt5.88x17¢Predict.fun5.65x17.7¢

J.D. Vance

34%

PredictItBest price3.13x32¢Polymarket2.95x33.9¢Polymarket US2.86x35¢Kalshi2.78x36¢

Marco Rubio

19%

KalshiBest price5.56x18¢Polymarket5.56x18¢PredictIt5.26x19¢Polymarket US4.76x21¢

John McEntee

5%

PolymarketBest price27.03x3.7¢Kalshi18.52x5.4¢

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Background

The Republican Party will choose its 2028 presidential nominee, and the market asks who ultimately wins that nomination. The contract resolves on Aug. 1, 2028. No candidate has formally announced. J.D. Vance is widely viewed as the front-runner, with Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis also in contention. Vance has said he will weigh a run after the November 2026 midterms, and DeSantis says he has not planned anything and leaves his term as Florida governor on Jan. 5. President Trump has named Vance and Rubio as possible successors but has not endorsed anyone.

The dynamic that matters most is that the market prices both who would win and whether each person runs at all. If a candidate decides not to run, shares on that person would settle at zero, so statements about intentions can move prices even without new polling. Trump's stance toward the field and the loyalty of Republican primary voters to him are also central to how the odds should be read.

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Nov. 6, 2026: DeSantis's 2028 Nomination Odds Jump to 17% After Breaking With Trump

Ron DeSantis's chances of winning the 2028 Republican nomination rose sharply this week after the Florida governor called his party's Nov. 3 midterm losses "close to an extinction-level event" and broke with President Trump over what caused them, according to Fox News. In the 2028 US Presidential Republican Nominee market, his implied probability climbed from 4% to 17% over three days.

Ron DeSantis's Chances of Winning the 2028 Republican Nomination Have Jumped to 17%

DeSantis built his argument on one statistic: Florida is the only one of the 10 most populous states with a Republican governor. He framed the results as "a rebuke" to Trump and to a Congress he said was defined by "a lack of productivity," as Democrats took both chambers and Republicans lost ground in Texas, Ohio, Georgia and Kansas.

The critique extended beyond election night. On Stephen A. Smith's podcast, DeSantis accused the Trump administration of gaslighting voters and criticized its handling of the Iran war, big tech and immigration. Few Republicans of his stature have publicly assigned blame to Trump this directly, and CNN grouped his remarks with Vice President JD Vance's postmortem as early 2028 positioning.

As of Nov. 6, 2026, the DeSantis contract traded at 17% on the aggregate, with Kalshi at 18%, Polymarket at 13% and PredictIt at 20%. That 7-point gap between platforms shows traders still disagree on how much his comments matter.

Is Ron DeSantis Running for President in 2028?

He has not said he is. DeSantis told CNN's Jake Tapper he "hasn't planned anything" for 2028, a statement that stops short of both a denial and an announcement, according to VINnews. He added that he will be "a free man" after Jan. 5, when his term as governor ends, and said, "I'm more about doing it to accomplish things, not to be somebody."

Pressed on his plans, he declined to rule anything out, telling interviewers "I still got more," per Economic Times. No candidacy filing or formal announcement exists. Analysts Doug Kaplan, Mary Marslender and Elizabeth Pipko described the remarks as an opening salvo to carve out a lane distinct from the Trump-led status quo.

What the DeSantis Market Move Shows, and What It Doesn't

The 13-point gain lines up with his comments and the wider midterm fallout, which The Independent called an "unlikely surge." The timing fits a reaction to the news. The sources do not establish who traded or why.

The strongest case against the move comes from the same analysts who noted his new lane: MAGA remains strong among Republican primary voters, and DeSantis lost his 2024 bid for the nomination to Trump. A critic of Trump still has to win a primary electorate loyal to him. At 17%, the market still assigns more than four-in-five odds that someone else is the nominee. Vance is widely viewed as the front-runner, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also in contention. The full field appears in the widget above.

No verified volume data accompanies this move. Short-window jumps in a contract that resolves Aug. 1, 2028 can reflect thin trading, so the price should be read with that caution.

Are There Polls for Ron DeSantis in the 2028 Republican Primary?

The research for this article turned up no verified public polls of the 2028 Republican primary taken since the midterms. The market price is therefore the only live measure sourced here, and it is not a poll. The 17% figure is a traded probability that DeSantis becomes the nominee, not his share of Republican voters' support.

Polls measure voter preference at a moment in time. Market prices reflect what traders are willing to pay on an outcome, and they can move on statements alone, as this week showed. The contract settles on who becomes the 2028 Republican presidential nominee. Readers should check each platform's rules for exact resolution terms. Live prices for every candidate are on the 2028 Republican presidential nominee market page.

The next test is whether DeSantis, out of office after Jan. 5, turns "a free man" into a declared campaign.

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Earlier Updates

Oct. 26, 2026: Vance's 2028 Nomination Odds Fall After He Says He Might Not Run

J.D. Vance44% → 37%▼7

Vance's chances of winning the 2028 Republican nomination fell to 37% on Polymarket on Oct. 26, 2026, after he said there was "of course" a chance he would not run, citing his four young children and his wife's dislike of politics, according to Newsweek. He has not announced a campaign and says he will weigh the decision seriously after the November 2026 midterms.