Kalshi BC Election: Fry Leads Sim 28-27 in Vancouver Mayor Poll
Canada Pulse Insights has Fry up 1 point among decided voters, inside a ±4.4 margin; Polymarket moved Fry from 55% to 67% in three days.
Are There Polls for Pete Fry in the Vancouver Mayoral Race?
Yes. Pete Fry leads incumbent Ken Sim narrowly in the two most recent polls located in this check. A Canada Pulse Insights poll for CityNews/OMNI (fieldwork Sept. 28 to Oct. 6, 2026, reported Oct. 9) put Fry at 28% and Sim at 27% among decided voters, well inside its ±4.4 point margin of error, according to CityNews. On Polymarket's 2026 Vancouver mayoral election market, Fry's win probability has risen from 55% to 67% ahead of the Oct. 17 vote.
| Pollster / source | Fieldwork dates | Sample base | Pete Fry | Ken Sim | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada Pulse Insights | 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-06 | decided voters | 28% | 27% | Not reported |
| Leger | 2026-09-23 to 2026-09-30 | all respondents | 23% | 19% | 36% |
| Justason Market Intelligence | 2026-08-31 to 2026-09-11 | decided voters | 45% | 30% | Not reported |
| Research Co. | 2026-07-30 to 2026-08-01 | decided voters | 19% | 30% | Not reported |
The two polls measure different groups. Canada Pulse reports decided voters; Leger reports all respondents (Sept. 23 to 30), 36% of whom were undecided. Their percentages are two separate snapshots, not a change in support. In the Canada Pulse poll, Liberal Kareem Allam took 19% and TEAM's Colleen Hardwick 13%, per the release. The Vancouver Sun described Fry's lead as "tenuous."
Fry's leads of 1 point and 4 points are narrow, and the Canada Pulse lead falls well inside its error margin. Vote intention measures what respondents say today; it is not an expected vote share or a probability of winning.
What the Market Implies for Pete Fry's Chances of Winning Vancouver Mayor
On Polymarket's "Who will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?" market, Fry traded at 67% on Oct. 13, a 12 percentage point gain over three days.
Who will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
This market settled on October 22, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.
The 55% low shown is the lowest price within this three-day recorded window only.
A 67% price for Fry leaves about 33% for every other candidate combined, not for Sim alone. The price is an implied probability set by traders, not a survey of voters. Polls and market point the same direction, with Fry ahead, but the market's confidence exceeds what a 1 point poll gap alone shows. The move followed the Oct. 9 poll release, but we could not establish its cause. Live prices for every candidate are on the Vancouver mayoral election odds page.
When Is the Vancouver Mayoral Election and How Does the Market Settle?
Voting takes place Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026, after advance voting days on Oct. 10 and Oct. 13, according to the Vancouver Sun's voter guide. Before then, Fry has challenged Sim to a one-on-one debate on the steps of City Hall at noon on Oct. 14, the Green Party of Vancouver said.
The market resolves to the winner of the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election. Readers should check the full resolution rules on the market page before trading.
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The story so far: Who will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
8 updates · Aug 21 – Oct 5
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