Chase Briscoe's Title Odds Hit 8% After Second Straight Win

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Chase Briscoe's Cup Championship Chances Jump to 8% After Winning at Charlotte

Chase Briscoe's chances of winning the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship rose from 2% to 8% on Kalshi after he won the Bank of America 400 at Charlotte on Oct. 11. He beat Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell by 0.029 seconds for his second straight win, cutting Kyle Larson's points lead over him from 123 to 65 with four races left, according to Racer and AP.

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NASCAR Cup Series Champion

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

Chase BriscoeIn this story

14%

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Kyle Larson

33%

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Denny Hamlin

17%

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Christopher Bell

25%

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The rise of roughly 6 percentage points came over three days, and Briscoe stood at 8% on Oct. 13. The 2% mark is the low for this period. The Charlotte win was Briscoe's eighth career Cup victory and his third of 2026. He led 62 laps, per ESPN.

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How Briscoe's Back-to-Back Wins Cut Kyle Larson's Points Lead to 65

The gap shrank by 58 points across two races. Briscoe fell 123 points behind Larson after losing in the final laps at Kansas on Sept. 27. He then won the South Point 400 at Las Vegas on Oct. 4, leading 175 of 267 laps, and followed with Charlotte. The run lifted him from eighth to fourth in the standings, Racer reported.

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Briscoe's championship contract, Oct. 10 to Oct. 13, 2026. Charlotte race: Oct. 11.

Larson remains in control. He finished sixth at Charlotte, his worst result of the postseason, and still extended his lead over second-place Denny Hamlin to 49 points. Bell sits 51 back, Briscoe 65, Ryan Blaney 85 and Joey Logano 92. We could not establish any cause for the repricing beyond the win and the narrower gap.

Briscoe framed his own path plainly: "We probably need to win another race or two, but we at least have put ourselves in the ballgame." He added that he had given up 75 points "in four laps" over the past five weeks, per Racer. He cited Tony Stewart's late-season title run in 2011 as his model.

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What Could Confirm or Reverse Briscoe's Odds in the Final Four Races

Phoenix Raceway hosts the next race on Sunday, Oct. 18, followed by Talladega and the finale. A third straight win, or another finish ahead of Larson, would cut into the 65-point gap and support the move. Larson's consistency is the main threat: he has finished no worse than sixth in the Chase, so another top-five day at Phoenix would push the deficit back up with fewer races left to recover it. Readers tracking the full field can follow the NASCAR Cup Series champion market.