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Live prediction market odds for Who will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Who will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?

2026-10-17

Best price · tap to trade

Pete Fry72¢1.39xKalshiKen Sim27¢3.70xKalshiKareem Allam7¢14.29xKalshi
Compare all 13 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Pete Fry about a 68.7% chance. Ken Sim follows at 26.5%, Kareem Allam follows at 4.4%, and Sean Orr follows at 1.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Traders give Pete Fry about a 68.7% chance. Ken Sim follows at 26.5%, Kareem Allam follows at 4.4%, and Sean Orr follows at 1.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election. The outcome will influence local governance and policy direction, making it a focal point for voters and political analysts alike.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
PF
Pete Fry
69%
Kalshi72¢
Polymarket69¢
Kalshi1.39x72¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
69.0%66¢72¢28¢34¢
PolymarketPolymarket
68.3%68¢69¢31¢32¢
KS
Ken Sim
27%
Kalshi27¢
Polymarket29¢
Kalshi3.70x27¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
25.0%24¢27¢73¢76¢
PolymarketPolymarket
28.0%27¢29¢71¢73¢
KA
Kareem Allam
4%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket4¢
Kalshi13.70x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
5.2%3¢7¢93¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.7%4¢4¢96¢96¢
SO
Sean Orr
2%
Kalshi4¢
—
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%0¢4¢96¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
KL
Kirk LaPointe
1%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket1¢
Kalshi25.64x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%0¢4¢96¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Pete Fry

Pete Fry is a Vancouver City Councillor and Green Party member. He was first elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022. He is currently running for mayor in the 2026 Vancouver municipal election.

About Ken Sim

Ken Sim is the current Mayor of Vancouver, having been sworn in on November 7, 2022. Before his political career, he co-founded Nurse Next Door, a home care company, and Rosemary Rocksalt, a bagel business. His leadership in Vancouver's municipal government and his entrepreneurial background make him a central figure in the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election.

About Kareem Allam

Kareem Allam is the founder and mayoral candidate of the Vancouver Liberals in the 2026 Vancouver municipal election. He previously served as campaign manager for ABC Vancouver's 2022 election victory and as Mayor Ken Sim's chief of staff until February 2023. His candidacy is significant as he challenges his former boss, Mayor Sim, in the upcoming election.

About Sean Orr

Sean Orr is a Vancouver City Councillor representing the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE). He was elected in April 2025, securing 50.7% of the vote in a by-election. His progressive policies and activism make him a notable candidate in the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election.

About John Coupar

John Coupar is a former Vancouver Park Board commissioner. He was nominated as the Non-Partisan Association's mayoral candidate for the 2022 Vancouver civic election but resigned from the race in August 2022. His prior experience in city governance and his candidacy in the 2022 election make him a relevant figure in discussions about the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.0%
Platforms2
Candidates13
Leader

Pete Fry

68.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Who will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Ken Sim wins the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?

The election will determine the leadership of Vancouver, impacting local policies on housing, transportation, and public services. Voter turnout and candidate platforms will play crucial roles in shaping the city's future.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment about the election?

Prediction markets aggregate bets on various outcomes, reflecting the collective sentiment and expectations of participants. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in public opinion or emerging campaign dynamics.

What factors could influence the odds in the Vancouver mayoral election market?

Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign strategies, and current events affecting the city. Additionally, debates and endorsements can significantly sway public perception and market odds.

Who will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Who will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Pete Fry: 69.0¢ on Kalshi, 68.3¢ on Polymarket; Ken Sim: 25.0¢ on Kalshi, 28.0¢ on Polymarket; Kareem Allam: 5.2¢ on Kalshi, 3.7¢ on Polymarket; Sean Orr: 2.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Ken Sim Falls to 28% as Progressives Unite Behind Pete FryAzaroff's exit handed Fry a clear run at Sim, collapsing the incumbent's market probability from 39% to 28% in three days and ending the vote-split that kept Sim competitive.Sep 27, 2026Ken Sim Rebounds to 38% in Vancouver Mayor Race After 23% LowSim gained 15 points in three days with no new polling to explain the move, suggesting traders are doubting the progressive consolidation thesis.Sep 25, 2026Azaroff Endorses Fry, Cutting Allam to 6% in Vancouver Mayor RaceAllam fell 11 points in three days after Azaroff endorsed Fry. Sim also dropped to 34%, the first time he has been priced as an underdog this cycle.Sep 22, 2026Pete Fry Hits 65% After Azaroff Backs Him in Vancouver Mayor RaceFry surged 32 percentage points after OneCity's Azaroff endorsed him, yet polls still show Ken Sim leading or tied with 34% of voters undecided.Sep 20, 2026