Pete Fry Reaches 29% in Vancouver Mayor Odds, Tied for Second

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Vancouver Mayor Polls Tie Pete Fry for Second as His Odds Reach 29%

Pete Fry is priced at roughly 29% to win Vancouver's October 17 mayoral election after a citywide poll placed him in a tie for second. Incumbent Ken Sim leads both measures, but the gap looks different depending on which one you use: Sim has 22% of all respondents in the poll, while his prediction-market probability is around the mid-30s.

Fry's comparison is similarly instructive. He receives 14% among all poll respondents and roughly 19% once the undecided group is excluded. His 29% market price is not a prediction of vote share. It is the market's estimate of his chance of finishing first.

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Live Pete Fry Odds for Vancouver Mayor

Prediction-market view

Live prices, venue by venue

Compare the latest YES price at each venue. Check market rules, liquidity, and fees before trading.

Pete Fry

Consensus YES price across 2 venues

69%average

PolymarketBest YES price69¢Kalshi72¢

Ken Sim

Consensus YES price across 2 venues

27%average

KalshiBest YES price27¢Polymarket29¢

Kareem Allam

Consensus YES price across 2 venues

4%average

PolymarketBest YES price4.3¢Kalshi7.3¢

John Coupar

Consensus YES price across 2 venues

1%average

PolymarketBest YES price1.7¢Kalshi4¢

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At publication, Kalshi quoted Pete Fry around 26% to 32%, while Polymarket quoted him around 28% to 29%. The two midpoints average to approximately 29%.

Ken Sim remains the market leader around the mid-30s. Fry is second, while Kareem Allam is priced around the low teens. That ordering differs from the public poll, where Fry and Allam are tied. Traders are assigning Fry a better chance than Allam of converting current support into an election win.

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What the Latest Vancouver Mayor Poll Shows

Research Co.'s August 4 poll surveyed 401 Vancouver residents. Among all respondents, Ken Sim received 22%, Kareem Allam 14%, Pete Fry 14%, Colleen Hardwick 10%, Rebecca Bligh 5%, William Azaroff 4%, and Stephanie Allen 3%. Another 2% selected another candidate, and 26% were unsure.

If the 26% unsure group is removed and the named choices are normalized, Sim is near 30%, Fry and Allam are both near 19%, and Hardwick is near 14%. That adjusted view is useful for comparing the active candidates, but it is not a forecast. The undecided voters are real and can break unevenly.

The survey also shows a mixed image for Fry. A combined 45% held a very or moderately favorable view of him, while 22% were unfavorable. Another 33% either did not know enough about him or were unsure. There is room for growth, but also room for opponents to define him.

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Why Fry's Odds Are Higher Than His Poll Share

A winner probability should exceed a candidate's expected vote share when several candidates divide the field. Fry does not need 50% of the vote to win. He needs more votes than Sim, Allam, Hardwick, and the rest.

The market may also be distinguishing between Fry and Allam's paths. They are tied at 14% in the poll, but Fry has a higher contract price. That could reflect expectations about campaign organization, voter consolidation, or simply different liquidity across contracts. The available data show the gap; they do not prove one cause.

The 26% unsure share creates optionality. If Fry wins a larger portion of those voters than his rivals, a 14% topline can grow quickly. If Sim consolidates them instead, Fry's current odds will look too high.

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The Case for Pete Fry at 29%

Fry is already tied for second in the public poll, and the race is fragmented. Sim's 22% support among all respondents is a lead, not a majority. A seven- or eight-point swing among the large unsure group could change the ordering.

Fry also performs better among residents aged 55 and older in the Research Co. table, reaching 19% in that group compared with 14% citywide. Older voters can matter disproportionately in municipal elections if they turn out at higher rates.

Finally, Polymarket's tight 28% to 29% book gives more confidence in the current price than Kalshi's wider quote alone would provide. The cross-venue average is not being driven by one isolated last trade.

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The Case Against Pete Fry at 29%

Ken Sim leads the poll and the market. Even after excluding unsure respondents, Sim is around 30% compared with Fry's 19%. Fry needs to close a meaningful gap while also preventing Allam or Hardwick from becoming the main alternative to the incumbent.

Fry's market price is also substantially higher than Allam's despite their polling tie. If no new survey confirms a Fry advantage, that market gap may be difficult to defend.

The poll is one snapshot from a sample of 401. Subgroup results, such as Fry's strength among older voters, have wider uncertainty than the citywide numbers. They should guide what to watch, not be treated as precise turnout projections.

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What to Watch Before October 17

The next poll should answer three questions: whether Sim remains near 22%, whether Fry breaks the tie with Allam, and whether the unsure share begins to fall. Watch the live venue spread too. If Kalshi's book tightens around Polymarket's price, the 29% consensus becomes more robust.

For live prices on every candidate, see the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election odds hub.

The current evidence makes Fry a real contender, not the favorite. Vancouver mayor polls put him in a second-place tie; prediction markets give him a clearer second place and roughly a three-in-ten chance of winning.