Who Will Win the Maine Senate Race? Polls and Latest News

Resolved Nov 4, 2026

Maine Senate winner? (Person)

This market settled on November 4, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Compare every venueClosing prices, not an entry point

Consensus prediction market price

Since the first article's chart, October 23 to November 4

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Background

Maine voters chose a U.S. senator in the 2026 general election, with the count continuing after Election Day on Nov. 4. The contest pitted Democrat Troy Jackson against Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins. Jackson became the Democratic nominee in late July, after Graham Platner left the race over a sexual assault allegation that Platner denies.

The market tracks who wins the seat, so the price is an implied probability and not a vote share. NBC News projected Jackson the winner and Collins conceded, but the count was partial in the reports reviewed, the AP had not issued a formal call, and Maine still has to certify the result. How contracts settle depends on the market's own rules, which were not in the sourced material.

Nov. 4, 2026: NBC Projects Troy Jackson Beats Collins in Maine Senate Race

Is Troy Jackson Winning the Maine Senate Race Against Susan Collins?

Troy Jackson is the projected winner of Maine's 2026 Senate race, and his contract on Kalshi's "Maine Senate winner? (Person)" market reached 98%. NBC News projected the Democrat would defeat Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Collins conceded early Wednesday, Nov. 4, saying she had called Jackson to congratulate him, Axios reported. Jackson led with roughly 52-53% in a partial count. The Associated Press had not issued a formal call in the reports reviewed.

On that market, Jackson's contract rose from 68% to 98% over three days, a gain of 30 percentage points.

Why Troy Jackson's Maine Senate Odds Jumped From 68% to 98%

Three things happened in quick order: the election-night count, NBC's projection at 12:49 a.m. EST on Nov. 4, and Collins' concession. The Exa.ai results tracker showed Jackson ahead 53.4% with roughly 69-72% of the expected vote counted. In her concession, Collins said her staff would ensure a smooth transition. The sources show that the price move and these events happened at the same time. They do not show which individual trades caused the move.

The 98% figure recorded on Nov. 4 is the market's implied probability that Jackson wins. It is not his share of the vote, and it is not a certified result.

Are There Polls for Troy Jackson in the Maine Senate Race?

Yes. Polls released in the final 72 hours before the vote mostly favored Jackson:

NYT/Siena: Jackson +6
UNH: Jackson +9
YouGov: Jackson +5
AtlasIntel: Jackson +9
Emerson: Collins +1 (the only one showing Collins ahead)

Even with those polls out, Jackson's contract traded at 68% at the start of the three-day window.

Each of these numbers measures something different:

Polls estimated voter intent before Election Day.
The 52-53% figure is a partial count of actual ballots.
NBC's projection is a newsroom's call based on that count.
The 98% market price is what traders are willing to pay on the outcome.

What Still Needs to Happen for the Jackson Maine Senate Result to Be Official?

The count was still partial, and the AP call was not confirmed in the reports reviewed. Maine still has to certify the result. How the market settles depends on its own rules, which were not in the sourced material. Readers should check the Maine Senate winner market page before assuming when or how contracts pay out.

Jackson became the nominee in late July, after Graham Platner left the race over a sexual assault allegation that Platner denies.

Earlier Updates

Nov. 2, 2026: Collins' Odds Fall to 32% as YouGov Shows Jackson Up 52%-47%

Susan Collins38% → 32%▼6

Collins' market odds fell to 32% by Nov. 2 after two late polls showed Troy Jackson ahead. A YouGov poll reported by Political Wire had Jackson at 52% to Collins' 47%, following a Marist poll that gave Jackson a 49% to 47% lead.

Oct. 26, 2026: Troy Jackson's Maine Senate Odds Fall to 60% After Fox, Trafalgar Polls

Troy Jackson66% → 60%▼6

On Oct. 26, Troy Jackson's chance of winning Maine's Senate race in Kalshi's market fell to 60%, its lowest point of the period, as Susan Collins gained ground after a Fox News poll showed the race tied at 49-49 and a Trafalgar poll put Collins narrowly ahead at 47.0% to 46.5%. Collins also campaigned with former Democratic senator Joe Manchin, who endorsed her, and presented a Canada tariff cut as a win for Maine exporters, which Jackson disputed at a Westbrook union rally.