Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins Polls: Jackson Leads 49%-47%

Yes, there are recent polls of Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins, and both of the latest show the Democrat narrowly ahead. Suffolk (fielded Oct. 8-11) and InsiderAdvantage (fielded through Oct. 14, 1,200 likely voters) each have Jackson leading the Republican incumbent 49%-47%. On Kalshi's Maine Senate winner? (Person) market, traders give Jackson roughly a 58-64% chance of winning Maine's Senate seat on Nov. 3.

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Are There Polls for Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins in Maine?

Both two-point leads fall inside the margin of error, so the polls describe a toss-up, not a clear Jackson advantage. Earlier surveys point the same way with wider spreads: Marist had Jackson up 51-47, Washington Post/George Mason had him up 50-46, and CBS/YouGov showed a tie.

Polls and market prices answer different questions. A poll measures how a sample of voters says it will vote at one point in time. A market price is traders' implied probability that Jackson wins. A 49-47 poll and a 64% price can both be accurate, but the market is more bullish on Jackson than the poll margins alone would suggest.

The timing also matters. Suffolk finished fielding before the Oct. 15 final debate in Bangor, and InsiderAdvantage closed the day before it. Neither poll captures voter reaction to that debate.

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Why Troy Jackson's Senate Odds Rose From 58% to 64%

On Kalshi, Jackson's contract gained about six percentage points over three days, reaching 64% on Oct. 20. That window covers the final debate, broadcast by C-SPAN, where Jackson told Collins to "shut up" after she suggested a data-center protester was his supporter. Jackson's campaign newsroom also highlighted his attacks on Collins' record of voting with Trump.

Other developments landed in the same stretch. Jackson reported $20.4 million raised in the third quarter from nearly 200,000 donors, the Houlton Band of Maliseets endorsed him, and he campaigned with Sen. Elizabeth Warren in Portland on Oct. 17.

We could not establish that any single event caused the full move. The sources do not name a debate winner, the poll leads sit inside the margin of error, and published price readings vary by timestamp: Kalshi News listed Jackson at 57%, while Preduck recorded 58% on Kalshi and 60% on Polymarket on Oct. 13.

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How to Read Troy Jackson's Market Odds Against Collins

Live market odds

1 venue

Maine Senate winner? (Person)

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

Troy JacksonIn this story

66%

Kalshi1.52x66¢

Susan Collins

35%

Kalshi2.86x35¢

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A 64% price means traders estimate Jackson wins roughly two times in three. It does not project a 64-36 vote split; the polls show a race decided by a few points either way. Polls are one input traders weigh alongside fundraising, endorsements and the roughly $126 million in Republican outside spending reported in the race.

The contract settles on the actual winner of Maine's Senate seat. Check the resolution source in the market's rules on the widget, and follow the Maine Senate winner market page for live pricing as early voting continues through Oct. 29.

The polls call Maine a toss-up, the market leans Jackson, and both will shift as new surveys and early returns arrive.