Will Apple Be the Largest Company in November? Nvidia Slides to Third

---

Will Apple Be the Largest Company at the End of November 2026? Polymarket Says About 95%

Apple is the strong favorite on Polymarket's "Largest Company end of November 2026?" market, at about 95%. Nvidia's board met on the evening of Nov. 11 to address CEO Jensen Huang's future, according to NBC News. Nvidia shares then fell about 8.6% after hours, cutting its market cap to roughly $3.83 trillion, Financial News reported. That trails Apple at about $5.10 trillion and Microsoft at about $3.86 trillion.

The crisis has been building since Nov. 8. That day, Nvidia disclosed a board investigation into Huang after he admitted an affair with a woman whom US intelligence has linked to China's Ministry of State Security. On Nov. 11, The Wall Street Journal reported that the board was preparing to remove him. The New York Times, citing five people who worked at Nvidia, reported that Huang also had a relationship with an executive who reported to him. NBC has not confirmed the Times report. One NBC source said the White House was aware of the meeting.

Apple's implied probability rose from 87% to 95% over the three days ending Nov. 12, a gain of about 8 percentage points.

Live market odds

2 venues

Largest Company end of November 2026?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket and Predict.fun.

AppleIn this story

94%

PolymarketBest price1.05x94.8¢Predict.fun1.05x95¢

NVIDIA

6%

PolymarketBest price16.95x5.9¢Predict.fun12.66x7.9¢

4 others under 1%Show all

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

1D7D30D

---

Nvidia Falls Behind Apple and Microsoft in Market Cap

After the after-hours drop, Nvidia ranks third. It sits behind Apple, which is about $1.27 trillion larger, and Microsoft, which is roughly $30 billion ahead. CBS News and the BBC tied the selloff to reports that the board was weighing Huang's ouster. Shares traded near $158.78.

These are after-hours prices, not closing prices, so the standings can shift when regular trading resumes on Nov. 12.

Apple's lead was already forming before the scandal broke. Apple reclaimed the top spot after Nov. 4 and posted a record close of $350.69 on Nov. 9. The odds move therefore reflects both the board meeting and a lead that was already forming.

---

What Could Confirm or Reverse Apple's Lead Before November Ends

The first test is the board's decision. As of early Nov. 12, NBC and Axios reported that the board had not announced an outcome on Huang's position.

The second test comes on Nov. 17, when Nvidia reports quarterly results. A clear decision on Huang's role combined with a strong report could help Nvidia's shares recover. Even so, Nvidia would need to gain about a third of its value relative to Apple to close a gap of roughly $1.27 trillion.

Apple's lead has also proven fragile in 2026. Nvidia briefly retook first place on Nov. 3, after Apple guided to lower gross margins of 45% to 46% and CEO John Ternus warned of "unprecedented" increases in memory chip prices.

The market resolves on market capitalization at the close of November's final trading day, so mid-month swings matter only if they hold. Live pricing is tracked on the largest company at end of November 2026 market page.