Will the Fed Hike in December? Latest News

Live market odds

2 venues

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket and Predict.fun.

Hike–Pause–HikeIn this story

96%

Predict.funBest price1.05x95¢Polymarket1.03x97¢

Hike–Pause–Pause

2%

PolymarketBest price34.48x2.9¢Predict.fun25.64x3.9¢

Other

1%

PolymarketBest price55.56x1.8¢Predict.fun52.63x1.9¢

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Background

This market covers the Federal Reserve's rate decisions from September through December 2026, and the outcome in focus is Hike-Pause-Hike: a hike in September, a hold in October, and a hike in December. Chair Kevin Warsh leads the committee. The Fed hiked 25bp unanimously in September, then held at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 28 by a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of an immediate hike.

The first two legs have already resolved as required, so the outcome now depends on one decision at the Dec 8-9 meeting. Any hike completes the sequence, whether 25bp or larger, and a hold breaks it. Governor Christopher Waller has said he leans toward a hike, which is a stated preference rather than a committed vote, and he tied the size of the move to incoming inflation data.

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Nov. 12, 2026: Fed December Hike Odds: Waller and Hot CPI Lift Sequence to 97%

Will the Fed Hike in December 2026? Hike-Pause-Hike Jumps to 97% After Waller Speech and Hot CPI

Yes, a December hike looks likely. On Nov. 10, Governor Christopher Waller said he leans toward a 25bp increase at the Fed's Dec 8-9 meeting, according to his speech on the economic outlook. October CPI landed the same day at 0.4% headline and 0.3% core. On Polymarket's Fed decisions (Sep-Dec) market, the Hike-Pause-Hike outcome climbed from 81% to 97% over three days, about 16 percentage points.

The price reflects how much of the sequence has already resolved. The Fed hiked in September and held in October, so the contract now depends on one remaining decision: a hike on Dec 8-9. Waller tied his sizing to the data. He said a 50bp move "should be considered" if core inflation ran at 0.3% or higher. October core printed exactly 0.3%. CME FedWatch put December hike odds near 88% after the release, Investing.com reported. That futures-based single-meeting figure measures a different question than the three-meeting sequence, which explains part of the gap with 97%. Hike-Pause-Hike traded at 97% on Nov. 12, 2026, up from a period low of 80%.

With the sequence resting on a single decision, the remaining question is what could still derail it.

What Could Still Change the Hike-Pause-Hike Outcome Before Dec 8-9

The Fed's Dec 8-9 decision settles the contract. A 25bp hike, or any hike, completes the sequence. A hold breaks it. Waller said he "leans" toward a hike, which is a stated preference rather than a committed vote, and his own framing ties the decision to incoming inflation data. Waller's speech and the CPI release arrived on the same day, and the sources do not separate how much each contributed to the jump.

Size matters more for adjacent contracts than for this one. The sourced base case is 25bp. Polymarket's separate 50bp-or-larger December contract rose to about 11%, Memcool reported. Hike-Pause-Hike resolves the same way whether the Fed raises by a quarter point or a half point. Readers tracking the live price can follow the Fed decisions (Sep-Dec) market. The confirming event is the FOMC statement on Dec. 9.

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Earlier Updates

Nov. 10, 2026: Will the Fed Hike in December? Hot CPI and Waller Lift Odds to 96%

Hike–Pause–Hike76% → 96%▲20

On Nov. 10, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he was leaning toward a December rate hike and that a hot inflation reading would justify a 50 basis point increase. October core CPI then rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, the third straight 0.3% core reading, and Treasury yields jumped, Reuters reported.

Nov. 8, 2026: Chances of a December Fed Hike Climb After Strong October Jobs Report

Hike–Pause–Hike69% → 76%▲7

The Fed's December hike odds climbed after an October jobs report showed payrolls growing 165,000, well above expectations of roughly 70,000 to 80,000. Federal Reserve officials also signaled hawkish views, with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly telling CNBC on Nov. 6 that "we're going to have to tighten policy further," while leaving timing and size open.

Oct. 31, 2026: Will the Fed Hike in December? Two Dissents Keep It in Play

Hike–Pause–Hike78% → 72%▼6

On October 28, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75–4.00% by a 10–2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of an immediate hike, according to the Federal Reserve's statement. Investors widely expect a hike at the December 8–9 meeting, NPR reported.