Who Will Win Nigeria's Presidential Election? Polls and Latest News

Nigerians vote on January 16, 2027 to choose a president. INEC has confirmed an 18-candidate ballot. The main contenders are incumbent Bola Tinubu of the APC, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the ADC, Peter Obi of the NDC, and Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde of the APM. Atiku's place is in doubt after a Nov. 5 Federal High Court ruling voided the ADC leadership and the process that nominated him. The ADC is appealing and a stay application is pending. INEC's list still names him, but its chairman has said it will obey court orders.

The race is decided in a single first-past-the-post round with no runoff, so a split opposition can help the front-runner. A winner also needs at least 25% of the vote in two-thirds of the states. Whether the opposition consolidates, and whether Atiku stays on the ballot, matters more for the odds than the size of the field.

Nov. 13, 2026: Will Atiku Be on the Ballot? INEC Says It Will Obey Court Ruling

Will Atiku Abubakar Be on the Ballot in the 2027 Nigerian Election?

Atiku Abubakar remains on INEC's candidate list for the January 16, 2027 presidential election, but his place is conditional. On Nov 12, INEC chairman Joash Amupitan said at Chatham House that INEC is obligated to obey court orders if Atiku fails to overturn the Nov 5 Federal High Court ruling that nullified David Mark's leadership of the ADC, according to The Sun. Daily Post reported on Nov 13 that INEC would remove him. The ADC's appeal and its stay application were still pending.

Traders moved the other way. On Polymarket's "Nigerian presidential election winner?" market, Atiku's implied probability rose from 2% to 7%, standing at 7% on Nov 13.

How the Nov 5 Ruling and INEC's Statement Put Atiku's Candidacy at Risk

Justice Peter Lifu's Nov 5 judgment, in a suit brought by former ADC deputy chairman (North-East) Nafiu Bala Gombe, declared every action of the Mark-led national working committee since July 29, 2025 null and void. That window covers the process that produced Atiku's nomination. ADC lawyer Kalu Kalu and spokesman Kola Ologbondiyan argue the judgment does not expressly void his candidacy, and the party notified INEC of its stay application on Nov 6.

Amupitan's comments at Chatham House in London leave little room for that reading if the appeal fails. "If he fails, I'm obligated to obey every court order, especially if it's from the Supreme Court," he said, adding that when a decision falls to INEC to implement, "the problem is transferred to you, but that is the position of the law." He told the audience that more than 300 court cases are "hanging on the neck of INEC" with the election about 66 days away, as The Sun reported.

The chart shows the climb from the 2% low to 7%. INEC's position depends on the appeal outcome, so the question is still unresolved, and Atiku said on Nov 6, "I am in this race... We will be on the ballot."

Are There Polls for Atiku Abubakar in the 2027 Nigerian Election?

Reporting from the past week did not surface a published head-to-head poll with vote shares for Tinubu, Atiku and Peter Obi. The closest measure is a Political Intelligence Group projection, reported Nov 9, that widened its expected Tinubu victory margin in a scenario where Atiku is excluded. It did not give a figure for Atiku.

That leaves the market as the only continuously updated read on the race, and at 7% on Nov 13 it still prices Atiku as a long shot. Any survey taken before Nov 12 would also miss the ballot-removal risk that Amupitan raised. Meanwhile, the APC is campaigning as though Atiku is running: at a Nov 11 rally in Akure, Vice President Kashim Shettima, speaking for Tinubu, said Atiku "has not been able to put his state in order," per Daily Post.

What Could Confirm or Reverse Atiku's Odds Next

The trigger is the Court of Appeal's handling of the ADC's appeal and stay application, neither of which had been heard as of Nov 13. A stay or a reversal keeps Atiku on INEC's list and supports the recent rebound. A loss makes removal likely under Amupitan's stated position, unless the ADC takes the matter to the Supreme Court, the court Amupitan named directly.

Opposition consolidation is the secondary variable. PRP's Donald Duke said he would step aside for a consensus candidate, Naija News reported, while the NDC's Peter Obi has refused to stand down. Prices for every contender are tracked on the Nigerian presidential election winner odds page.

Earlier Updates

Nov. 10, 2026: Peter Obi's Chances Slide to 20% After Court Voids Atiku's Ticket

Peter Obi28% → 20%▼8

On Nov. 10, Peter Obi's chances of winning Nigeria's January 2027 presidential election were priced at 20%, after a Federal High Court judgment led by Justice Peter Lifu nullified the ADC leadership and the process that produced Atiku Abubakar as its candidate. The ADC said it would appeal, and Obi criticized the ruling, saying voters rather than courts should decide who leads Nigeria. Coverage of the ruling focused on Atiku's candidacy rather than on Obi's prospects.

Nov. 8, 2026: Peter Obi's Odds Rise to 29% as Court Voids Atiku's ADC Primary

Peter Obi22% → 29%▲7

Peter Obi's odds of winning Nigeria's 2027 presidential election rose after Justice Peter Lifu of the Federal High Court nullified the ADC leadership and the primary that made Atiku Abubakar the party's candidate on Nov. 5. The ADC plans to appeal, and INEC's list still names Atiku. Obi, running for the NDC, criticized the ruling and said voters, not courts, should choose leaders.

Nov. 6, 2026: Atiku's Chances of Winning Nigeria's Election Fall to 2% After Court

Atiku Abubakar7% → 2%▼5

On Nov. 5, 2026, Federal High Court Justice Peter Lifu sacked the David Mark-led leadership of the African Democratic Congress and nullified its actions, including the primary that nominated Atiku Abubakar. The AP described the ruling as disqualifying a leading contender two months before the vote. Atiku and the ADC said they would appeal, while Atiku told supporters "no shaking."

Sept. 20, 2026: Tinubu Re-Election Odds Fall 8 Points After INEC Locks In 18-Candidate

Bola Tinubu74% → 66%▼8

On September 16, Nigeria's electoral commission INEC confirmed an 18-candidate ballot for the January 2027 presidential election, including incumbent Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Seyi Makinde. Reporting said the confirmation removed uncertainty about who would appear on the ballot, and that the opposition field contains at least three candidates with genuine regional infrastructure. Channels TV reported on the ballot finalization.

Who Will Win Nigeria's Presidential Election? Polls and Latest News

Nigerian presidential election winner?

Atiku AbubakarIn this story

Bola Tinubu

Peter Obi

Kashim Shettima

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