Will Joe Ryan Be Traded? Twins Decline $13M Option, Minnesota at 72%

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Will Joe Ryan Be Traded by the Twins? Minnesota Falls to 72% After Declining His Option

No trade or extension involving Joe Ryan has been reported. The Minnesota Twins declined their side of his $13M mutual option for 2027, a move MLB.com reported on Nov. 2, 2026. Ryan is not a free agent: he goes to arbitration and stays under Twins control for 2027.

On Kalshi's Joe Ryan's Next Team market, Minnesota fell from 86% to 72% over the three days ending Nov. 8, 2026, a drop of about 14 percentage points. That 72% is the lowest price the Minnesota contract has traded in this window.

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Why the Twins' Option Decision Doesn't Make Joe Ryan a Free Agent

A declined mutual option ends the $13M contract year, but it does not release Ryan. As Sports Illustrated explained, his 2027 salary will be set through arbitration, where MLB Trade Rumors projects about $9.6M, roughly $3.4M below the option figure. He does not reach free agency until after the 2027 season.

Ryan's 2026 line gives the arbitration case its shape: 7-10 with a 3.79 ERA and 159 strikeouts against 31 walks in 144 2/3 innings over 27 starts, with an August injured list stint for a left glute strain. The sources do not report a stated rationale from the Twins for declining the option.

The decision has fueled trade speculation, not reported talks. BoSox Injection pitched Ryan as a Red Sox target, and Sporting News floated a Blue Jays trade idea. The Mets have also been linked, with former Twins president Derek Falvey now advising them, and the Giants surfaced in earlier coverage. GM Jeremy Zoll has said the club is open to trading a starter, and Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Dean Kremer and Bailey Ober all reach free agency after 2027.

The counter-case still carries weight. At 72%, the market keeps Minnesota a strong favorite, and Twins Daily notes the team is unlikely to rush an extension, framing a patient approach rather than a sale. The 14-point drop prices added trade risk, not a confirmed move.

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What Could Move Minnesota's Joe Ryan Odds Next

A reported trade, or credible reports of trade talks with clubs like Boston, Toronto or New York, would push the Minnesota contract lower. An extension, or an arbitration settlement that locks in his 2027 salary with the Twins, would push it back up. The sources give no dated arbitration milestone, and the market resolves March 25, 2027.