Will Texas Gas Drop Below $2.30? Chances Fall to 2% Despite Oil Plunge

Texas gas is unlikely to drop below $2.30 this year. AAA Texas put the statewide regular average at $3.58 on Nov 5-6, according to ETSN.fm. That leaves pumps about $1.28 above the threshold in Kalshi's "How low will gas prices in Texas get this year?" market, roughly a 36% fall still needed with less than eight weeks left in 2026.

---

Texas Gas Below $2.30 Drops to 2% as Pump Prices Sit $1.28 Away

The gap survived the steepest weekly crude decline in years. On Nov 4, Brent fell about 8.7% to $94.62 and WTI fell about 8.3% to $88.12 after Democrats won control of Congress, as traders bet the result would hasten an end to the US-Israel war with Iran, Business Recorder reported. Brent then steadied and settled the week at $98.32, down about 13%, while WTI fell from $104.12 to $90.83, per QNC News.

Over the same three days, the "Below $2.30" contract fell from 7% to 2% implied probability as of Nov. 8.

Live market odds

1 venue

How low will gas prices in Texas get this year?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

Below $2.30In this story

2%

Kalshi33.33x3¢

Below $2.00

3%

Kalshi33.33x3¢

Below $1.90

3%

Kalshi33.33x3¢

Below $1.80

3%

Kalshi33.33x3¢

New to Kalshi? Get a $55 trading bonus

Code PRED55. New users only. Eligibility restrictions and terms apply.

Claim offer

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

Retail prices moved far less than crude. The statewide average dropped just 12 cents week over week and remains 94 cents above a year ago. Even the cheapest major metro, McAllen at $3.29, sits about $1 above $2.30, Daily McAllen reported. El Paso was priciest at $4.03. The lowest local quotes found were in Killeen, where stations listed regular at $3.06 on Nov. 7, per the Killeen Daily Herald, still 76 cents above the threshold.

1D7D30D

---

What Could Reverse the Below $2.30 Move: Iran Fighting and Crude Above $100

The bigger near-term risk points the other way. Rapidan Energy's Bob McNally puts the chance that Iran fighting resumes at 80%, a scenario he said could push both benchmarks back above $100, according to QNC News. A rebound of that size would put upward pressure on pump prices and push $2.30 further out of reach.

Reviving the contract would take crude declines well beyond last week's, sustained long enough to cut another $1.28 from the Texas average. The near-term checkpoints are US inflation data on Tuesday, OPEC's monthly report, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting on Nov. 29, and any shift in Qatar-mediated talks or the Strait of Hormuz. Each new AAA Texas daily average will show whether pump prices keep falling or stall. Live pricing for every threshold sits on the Texas gas price low market page.