Will STRC Hit $100 by Dec 31? Odds Slip Despite $3B Buyback Cap

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Will STRC Hit $100 by December 31? Market Odds Slip to 75%

Polymarket gave STRC a 75% chance of touching $100 by December 31, 2026, as of Oct 19. That is down from 82% three days earlier, a drop of about 7 percentage points. The contract has traded as low as 72%. Any one-minute NASDAQ:STRC candle on TradingView with a high of $100 or more resolves the market Yes, so a brief intraday spike would count.

Strategy's Stretch preferred stock (STRC) has traded close to its $100 par. It closed at $99.88 on Oct 12, its best finish since May and up from a $71.25 low in June, according to StockAnalysis. It has since slipped, closing at $97.72 on Oct 16. Strategy raised its preferred buyback authorization to $3 billion after a second straight heavy week of STRC repurchases, according to Yahoo Finance. From Oct 12 to Oct 18 it spent $193.1 million on 1.94 million shares and bought only 267 BTC.

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Why STRC's Odds Fell After the $99.88 Close

The sources do not state why traders marked the contract down, so the following is the likely reading rather than a confirmed cause.

Strategy is spending heavily to defend par. It repurchased $368.7 million of STRC from Sept 28 to Oct 11, The Bit Gazette reported, and then added the $193.1 million week. After the cap increase, about $1.16 billion of the $3 billion authorization remained as of Oct 18.

That support has a built-in limit. Strategy has said it will be a disciplined buyer below $100 and will buy less as STRC nears par. The bid thins exactly where the contract needs it most.

The dividend works the same way. Management says the 12% rate, which props up the price, stays until STRC shows sustained healthy trading near $100. A sustained move toward par would therefore invite a lower payout, which would weaken one of the main reasons buyers hold the shares. At the Oct 17 ParaFi Investor Day, Michael Saylor said he expects STRC's spread over 10-year Treasuries to tighten from about 700 basis points to 400 to 500 bps, according to Yahoo Finance. He also floated 7-day or daily payouts.

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Next Milestone for the STRC $100 Market: The Oct 28 Shareholder Vote

On Oct 15 the board conditionally declared daily STRC dividends for November at a 12% rate, subject to a shareholder vote on Oct 28, TokenPost reported. The sources do not link the vote's outcome to STRC's price, so treat it as a scheduled event to watch. The monthly dividend is payable Oct 31.

Strategy's weekly buyback disclosures are the second checkpoint. Smaller STRC purchases as the price approaches $100 would show the "buy less near par" policy taking effect. Continued nine-figure weeks would point the other way. Readers can follow live pricing on the STRC hits $100 by December 31 odds page. One print at $100 on any one-minute candle before the deadline settles the market.