Darian Mensah's Heisman Odds Hit 18% After Miami 2OT Win Over FSU

Darian Mensah's Heisman chances rose to 18% in the College Football Heisman Trophy Winner? market on Kalshi on Oct. 19, after he threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns in Miami's 43-35 double-overtime win over Florida State, according to Legion Report, Sports Illustrated and the New York Post. Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith still leads.

Mensah was at 10% three days earlier, a gain of about 8 percentage points. Legion Report flagged the roughly 4-point gain over 24 hours as the biggest daily gain on the board.

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Darian MensahIn this story

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The rise from the 10% low happened inside the same three-day window as the Florida State result. The sources show the game and the price move happening together. They do not establish that the performance alone caused the full 8-point move.

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Jeremiah Smith Still Leads the Heisman Market, but Mensah Is Closing In

Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith still leads the Kalshi board at roughly 48%, according to Legion Report. Sports Illustrated reported on Oct. 18 that Smith's lead was shortening as Mensah, Jesse Legree and Bear Bachmeier gained.

Sportsbooks show the same order. Fox Sports listed these prices as of Oct. 17:

| Player | Odds | | --- | --- | | Jeremiah Smith | -125 | | Darian Mensah | +280/+350 | | Trinidad Chambliss | +700 | | CJ Carr | +1300 |

Legion Report places Chambliss at about 11% on Kalshi. Behind the top four, Bachmeier's all-around performance for BYU also moved the Heisman Watch, according to Sporting News.

That leaves a gap of about 30 percentage points between Smith and Mensah. One double-overtime win is a single data point, and Smith remains the strong favorite with nearly half the implied probability on the board. Readers can follow the full field on the College Football Heisman Trophy Winner market page.

Miami's schedule includes a trip to Notre Dame on Nov. 7. Smith's next Ohio State games will decide whether his lead holds before the trophy is awarded on Dec. 12.

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