Will Oil Be Above $89 on Election Day? Odds Rise to 84%

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Will oil be above $89 on Election Day 2026? The $89 Or Above contract rises to 84%

WTI crude was trading around $97 on Oct 19, about $8 above the $89 strike in the Oil Price (WTI) on Election Day (November 3, 2026) market. That cushion widened after Iran-linked attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz cut Gulf crude flows to about 8.5M barrels per day, down from more than 20M bpd. Reuters, as cited by Investing.com, described the prior week's close (Oct 16) as the highest since Sept 17.

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Oil Price (WTI) on Election Day (November 3, 2026)?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

$89 Or AboveIn this story

90%

Kalshi1.11x90¢

$75 Or Above

98%

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$76 Or Above

98%

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$77 Or Above

97%

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The "$89 Or Above" contract rose from 74% to 84% over the period. The implied probability prices the distance between the futures price and the strike, not a call for further gains. A tanker struck a mine on Oct 18, and Houthi attacks on Saudi targets, including Aramco and Yanbu, added to supply fears. Brent briefly touched $110, its highest since May, according to The Economic Times.

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How the Russia sanctions waiver and OPEC demand cut dented WTI, but not the $89 contract

The rally faced a test on Monday. December WTI fell about 2.2% to roughly $96.82 on Oct 19 after Trump delayed new Russia measures to protect Ukraine peace talks and OPEC trimmed its 2026 demand growth forecast to about 200,000 bpd, Anadolu Agency reported. Trump signed an executive order waiving some Graham Act sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy. Secretary of State Rubio said up to 60 days will be used to assess the impact. Traders read the waiver as a path to more Russian fuel supply, including planned diesel exports to the US, per Reuters via Investing.com.

The sources do not say how much of the decline came from each factor. The decline still left WTI about $8 above the strike, and the contract stood at 84%. As Investing.com put it, the barrel backed off but the risk premium "still has teeth."

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The $89 Or Above contract moved from 74% to 84% as December WTI traded near $96.82 on Oct 19.

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What could make WTI fall below $89 by Nov 3: Goldman's $80 scenario

The clearest path to "no" is Goldman's normalization case, which puts WTI near $80 if Hormuz flows recover. That would require a drop of roughly $17 from the Oct 19 level in about two weeks. On the other side, Goldman sees as much as $120 if the shipping attacks escalate. Analysts have also warned that Iran may escalate before Nov 3.

Supply relief is the main risk to the "yes" side. The IEA agreed on Oct 15 to accelerate the release of more than 20M barrels of diesel, according to Reuters, and a possible Department of Energy SPR exchange of up to 17M barrels has not been confirmed. Three developments could confirm or reverse the move: further Hormuz shipping incidents, any change to the 60-day Russia waiver review, and OPEC's next demand update. Track live pricing on the WTI Election Day oil price market.

The contract settles on WTI's price on Nov 3, 2026.