Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Live prediction market odds for Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
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Compare all 7 outcomes across 2 venuesTraders give $150M about a 70.5% chance. $300M follows at 25.7%, $500M follows at 8.9%, and $800M follows at 5.2%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.0 percentage points.
Polymarket
Predict.funPolymarketPredict.funOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.funThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are $150M: 68.0¢ on Polymarket, 73.0¢ on Predict.fun; $300M: 27.0¢ on Polymarket, 24.4¢ on Predict.fun; $500M: 8.5¢ on Polymarket, 9.3¢ on Predict.fun; $800M: 5.5¢ on Polymarket, 4.8¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 5.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, $150M at 70.5¢ implies about a 70.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.
