Extended FDV above X one day after launch? Latest News

Live market odds

2 venues

Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket and Predict.fun.

$300MIn this story

26%

Predict.funBest price3.88x25.8¢Polymarket3.57x28¢

$150M

72%

PolymarketBest price1.39x72¢Predict.fun1.35x73.9¢

$500M

9%

PolymarketBest price11.11x9¢Predict.fun9.71x10.3¢

$800M

5%

PolymarketBest price16.67x6¢Predict.fun11.11x9¢

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

Hover the chart for prices over time. Each dot under it is a story update; hover to preview it, click to jump to it.

---

Background

This market asks whether the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of Extended's XTEN token will be above $300M one day after launch. Extended, a perpetuals and RFQ trading venue, has confirmed the XTEN ticker, a November 2026 token generation event (TGE) and a genesis supply of 1B tokens. Of that supply, 300M (30%) goes to Extended Points participants, converted at a final rate of 1 Xpoint to 4.2857 XTEN. No TGE date or claim window has been announced, and no circulating float or unlock schedule beyond the airdrop has been published.

FDV equals price times total supply, so with 1B tokens, $300M requires a price of about $0.30 per XTEN at the day-after-launch measurement. The market resolves NO if no token launches by Dec. 31, 2026, so a slip past the November target counts against YES. The airdropped 300M tokens are reported to be fully unlocked at TGE, so the actual launch date and the supply that can trade on day one matter most.

---

Nov. 6, 2026: Extended XTEN $300M FDV Odds Hit 28% After Final Xpoints Rate

Extended XTEN FDV Above $300M After Launch: Odds Rise to 28% After Final Xpoints Rate

Polymarket traders gave Extended's XTEN about a 28% chance of an FDV above $300M one day after launch on Nov. 6, 2026, in the "Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?" market. That day, Extended closed its Xpoints program at a final rate of 1 Xpoint = 4.2857 XTEN. The rate converts 70M Xpoints into 300M XTEN, or 30% of the 1B genesis supply, according to KuCoin.

The $300M line rose about 5 percentage points over three days, from 23% to 28%. The move coincided with the conversion announcement. Extended also adjusted allocations for 97 Discord users holding the Tester role, per The Defiant. The line touched a period low of 22% before the rebound.

The gain recovers only part of the earlier decline. The $300M outcome traded near 40% thirty days earlier, Kresmion data show. Elsewhere on the ladder, the $150M line stood at 71% and $500M at 12%.

What Could Confirm or Reverse the Extended Move: No TGE Date Yet

With the airdrop terms fixed, the open question is timing. Extended had not announced a TGE date or claim window as of Nov. 6. The market resolves No if Extended launches no token by 11:59 PM ET on Dec. 31, 2026, so a slip past the stated November target would push every FDV line toward No.

The math for Yes is simple. With a 1B total supply, a $300M FDV requires XTEN to trade above roughly $0.30 at 4:00 PM ET on the day after launch. The 300M-token community allocation will be fully unlocked at TGE, Phemex reported, so recipients can sell from the first day of trading.

Two milestones will move the market next:

• An official TGE date. This would clear the deadline risk.
• XTEN's first-day trading price. This would settle the question directly.

Traders tracking every threshold can follow the Extended FDV one day after launch market.

---

Earlier Updates

Nov. 2, 2026: Extended XTEN Set for November TGE: $300M FDV Odds Climb to 33%

$300M24% → 33%▲9

On Nov. 2, 2026, Extended confirmed that its XTEN token generation event remains set for November, with 300M of the 1B genesis tokens reserved for Points holders. The venue still had not published a Points conversion ratio, a claim date or any pricing, and claiming was not yet open. Traders on the Polymarket FDV market therefore still treated a $300M outcome as more likely to miss than to hit.

Oct. 26, 2026: Extended Confirms November XTEN Launch; $300M FDV Odds Slip to 32%

$300M38% → 32%▼6

On October 23, Extended confirmed the XTEN ticker, a November 2026 launch and a 1B genesis supply, with 300M tokens (30%) reserved for eligible Extended Points participants, per TokenPost and The Defiant. The company has not set a token generation event date, saying only that it is planned for November "subject to regulatory timelines."