Live prediction market odds for Fed decisions (Sep–Dec). Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
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Traders give Hike–Pause–Hike about a 96.9% chance. Hike–Pause–Pause follows at 2.2% and Other follows at 1.3%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.7 percentage points.
Polymarket
Predict.funPolymarketPredict.funOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
PolymarketThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Predict.funThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Key factors include inflation data, employment figures, and economic growth indicators. The Fed assesses these metrics to determine appropriate monetary policy adjustments.
The Federal Open Market Committee typically meets eight times a year. These meetings are scheduled in advance and are crucial for setting interest rates.
Interest rate changes affect borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. They also influence inflation and overall economic activity.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Hike–Pause–Hike: 96.6¢ on Polymarket, 97.3¢ on Predict.fun; Hike–Pause–Pause: 2.4¢ on Polymarket, 2.0¢ on Predict.fun; Other: 1.3¢ on Polymarket, 1.3¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Smart money is betting against Hike–Pause–Hike
Buy No at 3¢Wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit · last 24h
Smart money is betting against Hike–Pause–Hike
Buy No at 3¢Wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit · last 24h
