RBNZ December Hike Odds Hit 88% as Breman Calls Chance 'High'

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Chances of an RBNZ Rate Hike in December 2026: 88% for a 25 bp Increase

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has an 88% chance of raising the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.00% on 9 December 2026, according to Kalshi's New Zealand December rate decision market. Governor Anna Breman told the NZ Herald that the chance of a December hike is "high," and that every member of the Monetary Policy Committee sees further increases as likely, according to InvestingLive.

On Kalshi, the 25 Bps Increase outcome traded at 88% on Nov. 13, up about 12 percentage points from 76% over three days.

Live market odds

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New Zealand rate decision in December

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

25 bps increaseIn this story

88%

PolymarketBest price1.12x89¢Kalshi1.11x90¢

No change

12%

KalshiBest price7.14x14¢Polymarket7.14x14¢

25 bps decrease

1%

PolymarketBest price200.00x0.5¢Kalshi50.00x2¢

50+ bps increase

1%

PolymarketBest price125.00x0.8¢Kalshi50.00x2¢

50+ bps decrease: under 1% eachShow all

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How Breman's NZ Herald Comments Turned a 4-3 Hold Into a Hike Signal

On 28 October, the committee held the OCR at 2.75% in a 4-3 vote that surprised markets and sent the New Zealand dollar sharply lower. Breman, Gai, Hansen and Williams voted to hold. Conway, Gourley and Silk voted for a 25 bp hike. The bank said tighter policy is likely required, conditional on the outlook.

After the October decision, Breman sharpened that guidance in the Herald interview. A split hold paired with unanimous agreement that hikes are coming reads less as a pause than as a delayed move. She kept one qualifier: timing still depends on the outlook and inflation, per InvestingLive.

The market is looking past a weak labor print. September-quarter unemployment rose to 5.7%, an 11-year high, which would normally argue against tightening.

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What Could Confirm or Reverse the December 9 Hike Pricing

The confirming event is the 9 December decision and Monetary Policy Statement, where a 25 bp move would lift the OCR to 3.00%. Banks expect more after that. ANZ forecasts three hikes, in December, February and March 2027, according to NZ Adviser. Separately, MNI argues that a weak kiwi will push the bank to move in December.

Two things could reverse the pricing. The first is further labor-market deterioration beyond the 5.7% unemployment rate. The second is softer language from Breman or a committee that split 4-3 only weeks ago.