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Live prediction market odds for PA-09 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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PA-09 House winner?

Listed Sep 16, 2026 · Updated Oct 23, 2026 · Expected to settle by Jan 4, 2027

2026 Midterms hubNew

Every 2026 House seat beside the Senate and governor races, priced across every venue.
Open the hub

Best price · tap to trade

Dan Meuser (R)97¢1.03xPolymarket USRachel Wallace (D)3¢33.33xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Dan Meuser (R) about a 96.0% chance. Rachel Wallace (D) follows at 2.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Traders give Dan Meuser (R) about a 96.0% chance. Rachel Wallace (D) follows at 2.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the PA-09 House election. The outcome will be determined by the votes cast on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigns and polling data leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
DM
Dan Meuser (R)
96%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US97¢
Polymarket98¢
Polymarket US1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
96.1%94¢98¢2¢6¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
96.0%95¢97¢3¢5¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.9%94¢98¢2¢6¢
RW
Rachel Wallace (D)
3%
Kalshi3¢
—
Polymarket4¢
Kalshi34.48x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%1¢3¢97¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.5%3¢4¢96¢97¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Dan Meuser (R)

Dan Meuser is the U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district, serving since 2019. He previously served as Pennsylvania's Secretary of Revenue from 2011 to 2015. Meuser is a member of the House Financial Services Committee and chairs its Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations.

About Rachel Wallace (D)

Rachel Wallace is the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House election. She previously served as Chief of Staff for the White House Office of Management and Budget from 2021 to 2023. Wallace's extensive experience in federal government positions, including roles at the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Senate, underscores her qualifications for this congressional race.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Volume$22K
Leader

Dan Meuser (R)

96.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: PA-09 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for PA-09 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the PA-09 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the date of the PA-09 House election?

The PA-09 House election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date marks the general election when voters will cast their ballots.

How do odds change in the PA-09 House winner market?

Odds in the PA-09 House winner market change based on candidate campaigning, polling results, and voter sentiment. These factors can significantly influence market perceptions leading up to the election.

What platforms are tracking the PA-09 House winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the PA-09 House winner. They provide real-time odds reflecting market sentiment regarding the election outcome.

What does the PA-09 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest PA-09 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Dan Meuser (R): 96.1¢ on Kalshi, 95.9¢ on Polymarket, 96.0¢ on Polymarket US; Rachel Wallace (D): 2.0¢ on Kalshi, 3.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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