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Live prediction market odds for TN-04 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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TN-04 House Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Scott DesJarlais (R)98¢1.02xKalshiVictoria Broderick (D)2¢50.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Scott DesJarlais (R) about a 98.1% chance. Victoria Broderick (D) follows at 0.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.5 percentage points.

Traders give Scott DesJarlais (R) about a 98.1% chance. Victoria Broderick (D) follows at 0.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the TN-04 House Election Winner for the upcoming election on November 3, 2026. This race is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the region.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
SD
Scott DesJarlais (R)
98%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US99¢
Polymarket99¢
Kalshi1.02x98¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
98.0%97¢98¢2¢3¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
98.0%98¢99¢1¢2¢
PolymarketPolymarket
98.5%98¢99¢1¢3¢
VB
Victoria Broderick (D)
1%
Kalshi2¢
—
Polymarket1¢
Kalshi52.63x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.1%0¢2¢98¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.6%0¢1¢99¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Scott DesJarlais (R)

Scott DesJarlais is the U.S. Representative for Tennessee's 4th congressional district, serving since 2011. He is a physician and a member of the Republican Party. DesJarlais has been re-elected multiple times, demonstrating strong support in his district.

About Victoria Broderick (D)

Victoria Broderick is a logistics and technology professional from Fayetteville, Tennessee, and the Democratic nominee for Tennessee's 4th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House election. She previously served as chair of the Lincoln County Democratic Party and was the Democratic nominee for this district in 2024. Broderick's platform focuses on safety, affordability, freedom, and equity, reflecting her commitment to addressing key issues in the district.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Scott DesJarlais (R)

98.1% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TN-04 House Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TN-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TN-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the TN-04 House Election?

Polling data, candidate profiles, and local issues significantly impact the odds. Additionally, national trends and party dynamics play a role in shaping voter preferences.

How do prediction markets work for elections like TN-04?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts based on the likelihood of various outcomes. Prices reflect collective expectations about the election results.

What is at stake in the TN-04 House Election?

Winning the TN-04 seat could affect party control in the House of Representatives. This election may also serve as a barometer for broader political trends leading into the 2026 midterms.

What does the TN-04 House Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TN-04 House Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Scott DesJarlais (R): 98.0¢ on Kalshi, 98.5¢ on Polymarket, 98.0¢ on Polymarket US; Victoria Broderick (D): 1.1¢ on Kalshi, 0.6¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds
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Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $124K lifetime bet $2.4K on No at 96¢

4d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $124K lifetime bet $1.6K on No at 97¢

4d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $74.1K lifetime bet $1.4K on Yes at 95¢

4d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $74.1K lifetime bet $2.4K on No at 95¢

4d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $859K lifetime sold $3.1K of Yes at 93¢

5d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →