Bitcoin $100K Odds Fall to 20% as Hot CPI Revives Fed Hike Fears

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Will Bitcoin hit $100,000 by the end of 2026? Odds slip to 20% after hot CPI

Bitcoin's chance of reaching $100,000 by Dec. 31, 2026 fell to 20% on Polymarket's "Bitcoin price at the end of 2026" market after the Oct. 14 September CPI report showed headline inflation at 3.7% year over year against a 3.6% forecast. The print revived fears that the Federal Reserve could raise rates on Oct. 28. Bitcoin slid from near $84,000 to about $81,000, so it needs a rally of roughly 22% to 24% to reach six figures in under 11 weeks.

The "↑ 100,000" outcome fell from 26% to 20% over three days, as of Oct. 16.

Live market odds

2 venues

Bitcoin price at the end of 2026

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

↑ 100,000In this story

21%

Polymarket4.76x21¢

↑ 140,000

3%

Polymarket35.71x2.8¢

↑ 120,000

5%

Polymarket20.00x5¢

↓ 45,000

4%

Polymarket25.00x4¢

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

1D7D30D

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How the Bitcoin $100K odds moved after the Oct. 14 CPI release

The CPI beat was narrow at 0.1 percentage point on the headline, but core inflation also ran hot. At the spike, CME futures-implied odds of a hike at the Oct. 27-28 FOMC meeting climbed above 50% before easing to roughly 26% to 30%. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed toward 5.15% to 5.2%.

The $100K outcome's decline coincided with the CPI release, but two other pressures hit in the same window. Spot Bitcoin ETFs kept bleeding. Bitcoin traded below $82,500 as weekly ETF outflows reached about $146 million, according to TokenPost. The funds still turned over more than $7.5 billion in a week despite that net selling, Crypto Briefing reported. CoinDesk tracked continued outflows on Oct. 16.

Equities added the second blow. A tech and AI-stock selloff, including a 7.5% drop in Korea's Kospi, hit Bitcoin while its 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq sat near 0.67, per Sharpe. On Friday, Oct. 16, an oil-price surge sent the Nasdaq down more than 2% and Bitcoin dipped to $81,000. The sources do not rank how much each factor contributed to the repricing.

Options traders moved the same way. Derive.xyz's implied odds of $100K by Christmas fell 2.8 percentage points to 9.7% in 24 hours.

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What the Oct. 28 FOMC could mean for Bitcoin's year-end price

The Fed announces its decision on Oct. 28. Before that, PPI data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's IMF speech give traders earlier reads on how the central bank views the CPI beat.

A hike, or hawkish guidance paired with further ETF outflows, would confirm the move lower. A hold with softer language, or a return of ETF inflows, would give the $100K outcome room to recover. Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick has said his $100K target may prove too low if ETF inflows rebound. Bernstein targets $125,000 by December, and Fundstrat's Sean Farrell still calls for $100K by year-end, per Bitcoin Magazine. TokenPost reports that MSCI exclusion risk is largely priced in, with Bitcoin eyeing $95,000 to $100,000.

The full range of strike levels is on the Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 odds page. The next test arrives on Oct. 28.