Bitcoin's $100K Odds Fall to 24% as Hot CPI Lifts Fed Hike Odds

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Will Bitcoin Hit $100K by the End of 2026? Market Odds Fall to 24% After Hot CPI

Bitcoin now looks unlikely to finish 2026 at or above $100,000, with Polymarket's "Bitcoin price at the end of 2026" market at 24% for the ↑ 100,000 outcome. A hotter-than-expected September CPI report on Oct. 14 showed headline inflation at 3.7% year over year against a 3.6% forecast. The surprise pushed Fed hike odds above 50% and dragged Bitcoin to about $82,000. From there, the coin needs a rally of roughly 20% in under three months to reach $100,000.

On Polymarket, the ↑ 100,000 outcome fell from 30% to 24% over three days, as of Oct. 14. The market's period low is 23%. Options traders also see little room for a rally to $100K: Deribit pricing implies a median Dec. 25 price near $84K, according to Castle Labs.

Live market odds

2 venues

Bitcoin price at the end of 2026

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

↑ 100,000In this story

21%

Polymarket4.76x21¢

↑ 140,000

3%

Polymarket35.71x2.8¢

↑ 120,000

5%

Polymarket20.00x5¢

↓ 45,000

4%

Polymarket25.00x4¢

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

1D7D30D

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Why Bitcoin Fell After the October CPI Report: Fed Hike Odds, 10-Year Yield and ETF Outflows

The rates channel moved first. Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month against a 0.2% forecast. That pushed CME FedWatch odds of an Oct. 28 hike above 50%, with some reports putting them near 55%. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 5.15% to 5.2%. Bitcoin fell about $1,050 within minutes, from about $83,750 to about $82,700, and later tested support near $81,300.

The CPI report landed on a market already losing institutional demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $729 million over Oct. 7 and 8. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for all $65.4 million of outflows on Oct. 12, according to Crypto Briefing. Net October outflows had reached roughly $452 million before the CPI release.

Sources do not quantify how much of the repricing came from CPI, yields or ETF flows, so this article does not assign a split between them.

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What Could Move the Bitcoin $100K Odds Next: Fed Decision on Oct 28

The gap between the market and the options desk is narrower than it looks. Deribit's options pricing puts only a 10% chance on Bitcoin trading above about $102.9K on Dec. 25. It puts a 13.5% chance on Bitcoin finishing above $100K on that date, per Castle Labs. Both figures sit below Polymarket's 24% for the year-end outcome.

Bullish forecasts remain far from the market. Bernstein targets $125,000 by December, and Arthur Hayes calls $126,000 a near certainty, per 24/7 Wall St.. Daily spot ETF flow data offers a faster check on demand. A return to inflows would weaken the bearish case. More IBIT redemptions would strengthen it.

Traders tracking the Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 market have a dated test ahead: the FOMC decision on Oct. 28. A hike would confirm the repricing. A hold with softer guidance could reverse part of the six-percentage-point slide.