Bukele's Chances of Winning 2027 Election Slip to 89%

Prediction markets give Nayib Bukele about an 89% chance of winning El Salvador's February 28, 2027 presidential election, according to the Polymarket El Salvador Presidential Election Winner market on Oct. 26. The official campaign opens October 27, and he faces four opposition candidates. A 2025 constitutional change means the vote will be decided in a single round with no runoff.

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Bukele's Chances of Winning El Salvador's 2027 Election: Markets Price About 89%

On Oct. 26, Bukele's contract in the El Salvador Presidential Election Winner market traded at 89% on Polymarket. That is down roughly 7 percentage points from 96% three days earlier. This figure is an implied probability set by traders. It is not a poll, a vote-share projection or an official forecast.

Live market odds

2 venues

El Salvador Presidential Election Winner

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket and Predict.fun.

Nayib BukeleIn this story

97%

PolymarketBest price1.03x97.1¢Predict.fun1.01x98.6¢

Alirio García Flamenco

3%

Polymarket15.87x6.3¢

Rafael Aguirre

2%

Polymarket25.00x4¢

Mayteé Iraheta

2%

Polymarket27.78x3.6¢

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

Bukele is running for Nuevas Ideas with Vice President Félix Ulloa as his running mate. A dip from 96% to 89% leaves him as the overwhelming favorite. It moves the market away from near-certainty, but it does not signal a competitive race.

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What the Slide in Bukele's Odds Does and Doesn't Show

We could not establish the cause of the drop. Our search found no poll release, court ruling or news event from the past three days that explains it. The campaign opening on October 27 is the backdrop for the move, not a confirmed trigger.

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Polling is a separate signal from the market price. Polls cited from June, by UCA and LPG Datos, put Nuevas Ideas at 55% to 63% for president. Those numbers measure voter intention months ago. The 89% measures what traders expect the outcome to be. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) bans publishing polls during the 15 days before the vote, which will cut off that signal in the final stretch.

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How the 2027 El Salvador Election Works: Field, Date, and No Runoff

The TSE formally called the election on September 30, 2026. The vote covers 582 offices, including the presidency and 60 legislative seats, according to EFE. The key dates are:

• Candidate registration: October 1 to November 19.
• Official campaign: October 27, 2026 to February 24, 2027, per the Rio Times.
• Expatriate online voting: January 30 to February 28, 2027.

The field has five candidates:

• Nayib Bukele (Nuevas Ideas)
• Mayteé Iraheta (ARENA)
• Rafael Aguirre (FMLN)
• Alirio García Flamenco (PCN)
• Orlando Delcid (FPS)

Vamos, the PDC and Gran Alianza declined to field presidential candidates.

The rules favor the frontrunner. The July 31, 2025 constitutional amendment removed presidential term limits, extended terms to six years and eliminated the runoff. AP News reported that Nuevas Ideas ratified Bukele's bid for a third consecutive term. Under the new rules, a plurality in one round is enough to win, and the contract resolves on that single vote.

The campaign also has a live controversy. On October 13, Bukele announced a review of conditional early release for about 10,626 alleged occasional gang collaborators. Critics have called the move electorally motivated.

Readers can follow live pricing on the El Salvador presidential election winner odds page. The next things to watch are the first weeks of campaigning after October 27, the close of registration on November 19, and any new published polling before the pre-election blackout begins.