Will California Gas Hit $6.60? Prices Peaked at $6.40, Short of Record

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Will California Gas Prices Hit $6.60 This Year? Odds Fall to 34% After a $6.40 Peak

California gas looks unlikely to reach $6.60 this year after the statewide average stalled at $6.40. That peak was four cents below the $6.44 all-time record set on June 15, 2022, and prices have fallen since, according to the Auto Club. To reach $6.60, the average would need to climb about 20 cents above that peak, and further from today's lower levels.

On Kalshi, the "Above $6.60" outcome on "How high will gas prices in California get this year?" fell from 44% to 34% over three days, as of Oct. 17, 2026. The contract remains 7 percentage points above its period low of 27%.

Live market odds

1 venue

How high will gas prices in California get this year?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

Above $6.60In this story

35%

Kalshi2.78x36¢

Above $6.80

32%

Kalshi2.94x34¢

Above $7.00

20%

Kalshi4.55x22¢

Above $7.20

14%

Kalshi6.25x16¢

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Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

1D7D30D

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Newsom's Early Winter-Blend Order Cut Wholesale Prices About 20 Cents

Gov. Gavin Newsom's Sept. 28 order suspended the summer-blend requirement and let refiners sell cheaper winter-blend gasoline about a month before the usual Nov. 1 switch. Wholesale prices dropped 20 cents after the order, and the Auto Club said it expected pump prices to follow. Even at the peak, Santa Barbara set a regional record of $6.39, The Sacramento Bee reported, with San Jose stations charging more than $7 in places.

Retail prices then reversed. The Los Angeles County average fell for the 15th time in 16 days to $6.241 on Oct. 17, and Orange County dropped for the 16th straight day to $6.175, per MyNewsLA. Riverside County fell for the 13th consecutive day to $6.122 on Oct. 15, MyNewsLA reported. The Auto Club said earlier this week that Southern California declines were picking up speed.

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What Could Revive or Further Sink the $6.60 Contract

The confirming signal is AAA's daily California average continuing to slide well below $6.40. Every additional week of declines leaves less time on a contract that resolves Jan. 1, 2027. Traders should check the market rules for the exact resolution source.

The reversing signal is a new wholesale spike large enough to push retail 20 cents past the October peak. NBC Bay Area tied the run-up to Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions and California's refinery constraints. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan has warned that West Coast pressure could push prices higher again after the Phillips 66 Wilmington and Valero Benicia closures removed roughly 17.5% of state refining capacity. California diesel already hit a record $8.45 on Oct. 15, a reminder that the fuel system has little spare capacity.

The full set of price thresholds is on the California gas price high odds page.