Core CPI in October 2026: Latest News

Resolved Nov 10, 2026

Core CPI in October 2026

This market settled on November 10, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Compare every venueClosing prices, not an entry point

Hover the chart for prices over time. Each dot under it is a story update; hover to preview it, click to jump to it.

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Background

The question is whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report the strike level for seasonally adjusted core CPI (All Items less Food and Energy) for October 2026 on Kalshi's market, which lists 11 outcome strikes. The BLS release is due Nov. 10, 2026, with the exact time to be confirmed on the BLS schedule. September core was 0.3%, and sourced forecasts for October sit near 0.2%, with FactSet consensus at +0.2% and TD Securities at +0.21%.

The contract resolves on the BLS figure rounded to one decimal, so the rounding line matters most. For the "Above 0.0%" strike, a print of 0.1% or higher resolves YES and 0.0% or lower resolves NO. For the "Above 0.1%" strike, an unrounded reading near 0.14% would print as 0.1% and resolve NO, while 0.2% or higher resolves YES. Traders are debating the size of the increase more than its direction. No annual rate will be published for October because of the data gap left by the prior government shutdown.

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Nov. 6, 2026: Will Core CPI Be Above 0.1% in October? Kalshi Slips to 82%

Will Core CPI Be Above 0.1% in October 2026? Forecasters Say Yes, but the Market Slipped to 82%

Sourced forecasts expect October 2026 core CPI to come in above 0.1%. FactSet consensus is +0.2% month over month and TD Securities projects +0.21%, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the figure on Nov. 10, 2026. Both sit above the threshold, yet the Kalshi contract tracking it has lost ground over the past three days.

The "Above 0.1%" strike traded at 82% on Nov. 6, down from 93% three days earlier, a drop of roughly 11 percentage points. It touched a period low of 76% before recovering about 6 percentage points.

What Forecasters Expect for October Core CPI

The most recent consensus points to cooling but not a collapse. According to Morningstar, FactSet consensus for October core CPI is +0.2% m/m, down from 0.3% in September, with headline CPI expected at +0.24%. Morningstar attributes the cooling to falling used and new car prices and slower gasoline. It also notes that no annual rate will be published for October because of the data gap left by the prior government shutdown.

An earlier, mid-October estimate from TD Securities projected +0.21%, with shelter, especially owners' equivalent rent, and core goods softening. That estimate predates the latest consensus. Neither sourced forecast is at or below 0.1%.

Kalshi resolves on the BLS figure rounded to one decimal, so an unrounded reading near 0.14% would print as 0.1% and resolve the strike NO. Forecasts near 0.2% leave limited room before that line. No source ties the three-day decline to a specific trade or event.

Nov. 10 CPI Release: What Would Confirm or Reverse the Move

The BLS October CPI report on Nov. 10, 2026 settles the contract. A core print of 0.2% or higher resolves "Above 0.1%" as YES, in line with the sourced forecasts. A print that rounds to 0.1% or lower resolves it NO.

The inputs to watch in the report are the ones Morningstar flagged: used and new vehicle prices, and gasoline, along with shelter, where TD expected OER to soften. Live pricing for every strike sits on the Core CPI in October 2026 market page until the Nov. 10 release.

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Earlier Updates

Nov. 2, 2026: Will Core CPI Be Above 0.0% in October? Odds Rebound to 94%

Above 0.0%87% → 94%▲7

On Nov. 2, 2026, forecasters were still expecting a positive October core CPI, with TD Securities projecting +0.21% and Continuum Economics seeing 0.22%, both down from September's 0.3% gain. Continuum attributed August's overshoot largely to a one-time jump in telephone charges, while Bank of America warned of a possible second straight 0.3% print. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the figure on Nov. 10.

Oct. 31, 2026: Will Core CPI Be Above 0.0% in October? Odds Dip to 86%

Above 0.0%94% → 86%▼8

On Oct. 31, 2026, traders on Kalshi moved toward a flat October core CPI reading after September's core print of 0.3% month over month came in ahead of the 0.2% consensus, though the contract still heavily favored a positive monthly reading. Analysts pointed to broadening services inflation, with shelter up 0.4% and airfares up 1.2%, as the backdrop for the debate.