Will October PPI Top X? Latest News

Live market odds

1 venue

PPI month-over-month in October 2026

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

Above 0.5%In this story

39%

Kalshi2.33x43¢

Above 0.2%

94%

Kalshi1.05x95¢

Above 0.3%

79%

Kalshi1.19x84¢

Above 0.4%

54%

Kalshi1.79x56¢

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Hover the chart for prices over time. Each dot under it is a story update; hover to preview it, click to jump to it.

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Background

The market asks whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics' headline producer price index (final demand, including food and energy) for October 2026 will rise more than a given threshold month-over-month. The figure is published Friday, Nov. 13, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, and Kalshi lists a ladder of strikes, including 0.2% and 0.4%. September rose 1.3%, the largest gain since March 2022, driven by gasoline up 20.3% and services up 0.8%.

The key dynamic is how much of September's energy shock carries into October. Continuum Economics projects a 0.4% headline gain, with energy up another 3.0%. Settlement uses the first print only, and core PPI does not count, so a fuel price pullback is the main risk to the higher strikes even if services stay firm.

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Nov. 11, 2026: Will October PPI Top 0.5%? Traders Say 54% vs 0.4% Forecast

Will October PPI Be Above 0.5%? The Market Now Says 54%

Traders put the chance that October PPI month-over-month is above 0.5% at 54% on Kalshi as of Nov. 11, even though economists expect a 0.4% gain. The October 2026 PPI month-over-month market settles on the Nov. 13, 2026 release. September wholesale prices rose 1.3%, the largest monthly gain since March 2022 and more than double the 0.6% Dow Jones consensus, according to CNBC.

On Kalshi, the "Above 0.5%" contract climbed from 42% to 54% over the three days to Nov. 11, a gain of roughly 12 percentage points. The cited October consensus is +0.4%, which sits below the strike.

Why the October PPI Market Moved Despite Lower Forecasts

The September report showed inflation spreading beyond energy. Gasoline prices rose about 20%, linked to supply disruptions from the U.S. war with Iran. Prices excluding food, energy and trade services still rose 0.5%, CNBC reported. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said almost half of September's rise in processed goods for intermediate demand came from higher diesel prices, according to the BLS release. August was revised up to 0.5%, and annual PPI reached 6.3%.

That record supports reading the 54% price as a bet that energy costs will keep feeding into other categories faster than economists expect.

October PPI Release Date: What to Watch on Nov. 13, 2026

The BLS publishes October PPI on Friday, Nov. 13, at 8:30 a.m. ET, per its schedule. A headline final-demand print above 0.5% resolves the contract Yes. A reading at or near the 0.4% consensus would side with economists and resolve it No.

October CPI was released on Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET, per the BLS schedule.

The 54% figure is a trader estimate, not a forecast from the BLS or any economist.

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Earlier Updates

Nov. 7, 2026: Will October PPI top 0.2%? Above 0.2% hits 74% after September's 1

Above 0.2%68% → 74%▲6

Between Nov. 4 and Nov. 7, 2026, traders priced in a stronger October producer price reading, after September's 1.3% monthly PPI surge, the largest since March 2022, pushed energy and goods costs sharply higher. Continuum Economics projects October at +0.4% headline, with energy expected to rise another 3.0%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the figure on Nov. 13.

Nov. 2, 2026: Will October PPI top 0.4%? Odds hit 48% after September's 1.3% jump

Above 0.4%32% → 48%▲16

As of Nov. 2, traders on Kalshi were pricing a near coin-flip chance that October's headline PPI would rise more than 0.4%, after September's 1.3% jump driven by a 20.3% surge in gasoline. No economist consensus for October had appeared in coverage yet. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October figure on Nov. 13.