Bitcoin's Odds of Beating Gold and S&P 500 Halve to 6% in 2026
1 venue3%Down3 ptsfrom 6% when published, 6 days ago
- Traders have largely written off Bitcoin as 2026's top asset. Stocks remain far ahead even after their worst day in more than a year.
- It fell with stocks in the Nov.
Bitcoin's Chances of Beating Gold and the S&P 500 in 2026: Polymarket Says About 6%
Polymarket's "Bitcoin Vs Gold Vs Sp 500 in 2026" market gave Bitcoin a 6% chance of finishing 2026 ahead of both gold and the S&P 500 on Nov. 6, 2026, down from 12% three days earlier. Bitcoin sits near $76,000 and is down roughly 13-15% for the year with about eight weeks left. The S&P 500 is up roughly 7-10%. Reuters reported the S&P 500 still up 7.4% for the year after the Nov. 5 drop, while Kumocast shows +10.0% for the S&P and -14.6% for Bitcoin as of Nov. 2.
The period low for Bitcoin was 5%, and the S&P 500 outcome trades near 87-88%. These figures are crowd-implied probabilities set by trading. They are not a poll or an analyst forecast.
Live market odds
2 venuesBitcoin Vs Gold Vs Sp 500 in 2026
Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket and Predict.fun.
BitcoinIn this story
3%S&P 500
94%Gold
7%What Moved Bitcoin's Odds: The Nov 5-6 Tech Selloff and the Jobs Report
On Nov. 5, an AI and semiconductor selloff hit markets. The Nasdaq fell about 5.5%. The S&P 500 dropped about 4.3%, its worst day since April 2025. Bitcoin fell with stocks rather than hedging them: it lost more than 5% to roughly $76,000, erasing a post-midterm move near $80,000. Spot bitcoin ETFs shed $430 million that day, CoinDesk reported. Gold, by contrast, rose that day.
On Nov. 6, October payrolls came in at 165,000 against roughly 65,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.1%. Bitcoin slipped toward $75,500 after the report. Gold also fell about 1%. The sources establish that these events coincided with the odds halving. They do not show how each event shaped traders' views.
Why the Gap Is Hard to Close: What Bitcoin Would Need Before Jan 1, 2027
The S&P 500 took its worst session in about 19 months and still holds a lead of more than 20 percentage points over Bitcoin in the market's pricing. That gap, more than the week's news, appears to be what the low price reflects.
The arithmetic compounds against Bitcoin. A 13% loss requires a gain of about 15% just to get back to flat, and a 15% loss requires about 18%. Matching the S&P is harder still. Using the Kumocast figures (S&P +10.0%, Bitcoin -14.6%), Bitcoin would need roughly a 29% rally.
Each further S&P gain raises the hurdle. This is an illustration built on approximate figures, not a forecast. A sharp reversal in either asset would change the picture, and Bitcoin has moved quickly before: it rose about 42% in the third quarter. Gold's year-to-date standing is not established here beyond its pricing in the market.
How the Bitcoin vs Gold vs S&P 500 Market Resolves
The market resolves on Jan. 1, 2027. The winner is whichever of the three assets performs best over calendar 2026. Exact rule wording and the price data sources used for settlement should be checked on the Bitcoin vs Gold vs S&P 500 in 2026 market page before trading.
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