CPI in October 2026: Latest News

Resolved Nov 10, 2026

CPI in October 2026

This market settled on November 10, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Compare every venueClosing prices, not an entry point

Hover the chart for prices over time. Each dot under it is a story update; hover to preview it, click to jump to it.

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Background

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the October 2026 Consumer Price Index on Nov. 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Kalshi's market asks how large the seasonally adjusted all-items monthly change will be. September set a high baseline, with headline CPI up 0.6% on a gasoline jump tied to the US-Iran conflict, while core rose 0.3%. Economists expect October to cool as gasoline prices fell.

The contract resolves on the headline change rounded to one decimal, so a print of exactly 0.3% does not count as above 0.3%. A 0.4% or higher reading is needed for Yes on that strike. With forecasts sitting right at 0.3%, a few hundredths of a point from gasoline, other components or rounding can decide the outcome. Lower strikes sit further from the forecasts and would likely need a sharp energy reversal to flip.

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Nov. 10, 2026: Will October 2026 CPI Be Above 0.3%? Kalshi Odds Fall to 7%

October 2026 CPI is unlikely to come in above 0.3%, according to economists. Bloomberg's survey expects headline prices to rise 0.3% month over month, down from September's 0.6%, and Dow Jones consensus also sits at 0.3%. A print of exactly 0.3% does not count as "above," so a Yes needs a 0.4% reading or higher. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the report Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

On Kalshi, the "Above 0.3%" contract fell from 14% to 7%, and stood at 7% on Nov. 10. Previews from CNBC, Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance and NBC News, all published Nov. 9, agreed that October cooled. Economists expect core CPI, which excludes food and energy, to rise 0.2%, down from 0.3% in September.

Falling Gas Prices Are the Main Reason Forecasters See a Cooler October CPI

The AAA national average for gasoline fell from $4.41 on Oct. 1 to $4.18 at month end, a drop of about 5%. The EIA reported pump prices down more than 4%. NBC News reported that gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices all eased in October. Prices had climbed earlier after the US-Iran conflict and tariffs pushed them up. That reverses the energy surge behind September's 0.6% gain, the largest monthly increase since April.

What Could Reverse the Move: Tuesday's 8:30 a.m. ET CPI Release

The consensus sits right at the strike, so a small upside miss in the rounded figure would flip the outcome. Bank of America points to used cars and health insurance as categories that could lift the index even as energy cools. Gasoline is one component, and firm non-energy prices could push the headline to 0.4%.

The report will not include a year-over-year October figure, because the government shutdown forced the BLS to skip the October 2025 CPI. It is also the last inflation reading before the Fed's December meeting, where investors expect rate increases. Traders can track every strike on the October 2026 CPI market page.

Tuesday's release settles the question. A headline of 0.4% or higher resolves Yes, and 0.3% or lower resolves No.

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Earlier Updates

Nov. 5, 2026: Will October 2026 CPI Top 0.1%? Traders Say 94% After Hot September

Above 0.1%90% → 94%▲4

Kalshi traders raised their odds that October 2026 CPI would come in above 0.1% to 94% over the three days to Nov. 5, ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nov. 10. The move followed a hot September print of 0.6% month over month, which AP News reported and which was driven by a gasoline jump of about 9% tied to the US-Iran conflict. TD Securities and the Cleveland Fed nowcast both forecast October gains of roughly 0.27% to 0.30%.

Nov. 1, 2026: Will October CPI Top 0.1%? Traders Say 88% After Hot September

Above 0.1%80% → 88%▲8

On Nov. 1, 2026, traders pushed the odds that October CPI would rise more than 0.1% month over month up to 88%, from 80% on Oct. 29. The climb came more than two weeks after September's report showed headline CPI rising 0.6% on the month, driven by a 9.1% jump in gasoline that CNBC tied to the U.S.-Iran war. Core CPI also rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Oct. 27, 2026: Will October 2026 CPI Be Above 0.3%? Odds Fall to 14%

Above 0.3%22% → 14%▼8

On Oct. 27, Kalshi's CPI in October 2026 market priced the 'Above 0.3%' contract at 14%, after forecasters pointed to cooling inflation. TD Securities projects headline CPI at +0.30% and core at +0.21%, citing softer core goods, used-vehicle prices and expected mean reversion in shelter. The Cleveland Fed nowcast sits near 0.27%, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the data Nov. 10.