Cowboys' Maxx Crosby Trade Chances Halve to 6% Despite Jerry Jones

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Will the Cowboys Trade for Maxx Crosby? Market Odds Fall to 6%

Dallas has not traded for Maxx Crosby as of Oct. 31, and no deal has been announced. On his Tuesday radio show, after Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles, Jerry Jones said an outside opportunity is unlikely, "but if it's there, I'll do it." Separately, Jones has said the Cowboys did not walk away from the pass rusher.

Traders moved the other way. Dallas' implied probability in Kalshi's "Maxx Crosby's Next Team" market fell from 12% to 6% over the three days ending Nov. 1, a drop of 6 percentage points. Tom Pelissero of The Ringer reported Oct. 31 that Crosby wants to stay with the Raiders and is not forcing his way out, and Las Vegas' reported asking price remains two first-round picks.

Live market odds

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Maxx Crosby's Next Team

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

DallasIn this story

1%

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Stays with Las Vegas or Retires

98%

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Washington

1%

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Tennessee

1%

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Why the Market Is Cooling on Dallas: Pelissero and Schefter Reports

The sources do not tie the price drop to any single report, but three items hit the market alongside the move. Pelissero's Oct. 31 report says Crosby prefers Las Vegas, though Raiders GM John Spytek is expected to take calls. ESPN's Adam Schefter said talks had "lost a little bit of steam." Jason La Canfora reported the Raiders' two-first-round-pick price has not changed and that several teams may be weighing offers, a field Roundtable described as a growing "bidding war."

That price is a hard fit for Dallas, which already owes the Jets the better of its two 2027 first-round picks (its own or Green Bay's). The Cowboys also spent a trade on CB Joey Porter Jr., acquired from Pittsburgh on Oct. 1. Jones' "if it's there" language signals interest, not a confirmed offer.

The counter-case has backing among insiders. Mike Fisher told Pro Football Network he expects Dallas to circle back with an offer, though he called two premium picks an overpay. Bryan Broaddus predicted Dallas lands Crosby, per Sports Illustrated.

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What Could Move Dallas' Crosby Odds Next: The Nov. 10 Trade Deadline

Both teams sit at 3-4, and the deadline at 3 p.m. CT on Nov. 10 forces the issue. If Crosby signals openness to leaving, Pelissero's report loses its weight. If Las Vegas lowers its two-first price, Dallas' pick constraints matter less. If new reporting places a concrete Cowboys offer on Spytek's desk, Jones' comments become more than a hedge. Mark Schlereth's floated George Pickens-for-Crosby swap would be one such structure, though no outlet has reported it as an active proposal.

Live pricing for every team is on the Maxx Crosby next team market page. The window closes Nov. 10.