Nebraska Senate Race: Ricketts Leads Osborn 49% to 43% in NYT/Siena Poll

A New York Times/Siena poll of 809 likely Nebraska voters, fielded Oct. 23-29, 2026, has Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts ahead of independent Dan Osborn 49% to 43%, among the latest polls located in this check. Over three days, the Nebraska Senate Election Winner market moved Ricketts from 71% to 75%.

Public polling located as of 2026-11-01. Two leading candidates in the newest row; other candidates omitted. Compare like-for-like respondent bases; pollster methods may differ.

Pollster / source	Fieldwork dates	Sample base	Dan Osborn	Pete Ricketts	Undecided
On Point Polling	2026-10-27 to 2026-10-29	likely voters (undecided allocated)	48.7%	47.2%	0.2%
Siena College/New York Times	2026-10-23 to 2026-10-29	likely voters (includes leaners)	43%	49%	8%
co/efficient	2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30	likely general election voters	40%	45%	11%

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Nebraska Senate Race: What the Latest Polls Show for Ricketts and Osborn

The two located polls disagree on the leader. NYT/Siena (Oct. 23-29, margin of error plus or minus 4.2 points, 8% undecided) has Ricketts up 6. On Point Polling (Oct. 27-29, undecided voters allocated) has Osborn at 48.7% and Ricketts at 47.2%, an Osborn lead of 1.5 points. The fieldwork windows overlap but are not identical, and On Point's allocated figures are not directly comparable with Siena's 8% undecided share. These are the latest polls located in this check, and two polls cannot establish a pattern across all polling.

Osborn, a former union leader, is running with Democratic backing in place of a Democratic nominee, as in 2024, according to The Hill. Election Day is Nov. 3, per AP News.

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Are There Polls for Pete Ricketts (R) in the Nebraska Senate Race?

Yes. The NYT/Siena and On Point surveys above both measure vote intention. The market's 75% for Ricketts on Nov. 1 is an implied probability of winning, not a projected vote share, and neither 49% nor 47.2% is a win probability.

The NYT/Siena lead and the market's rise point the same direction. On Point points the other way, so the located polls are not unanimous. Venue prices sit close together: Kalshi and Polymarket at 74%, PredictIt at 78%.

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How the Ricketts Market Moved From 71% to 75%

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Ricketts dipped as low as 68% within the recorded window before reaching 75%, a 7 percentage point swing from that low. The climb coincided with the Oct. 31 NYT/Siena release, though sources do not establish that the poll drove it. On Point's Osborn lead, from the same stretch, did not stop the price from rising, so the market did not track every poll. Live pricing sits on the Nebraska Senate Election Winner odds page.