Dollar Hits 15-Month High on Hot US CPI: Will USD/BRL Reach 5.75?

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USD/BRL 5.75 Or Above Jumps to 70% After Hot US CPI

The dollar is now more likely than not to hit R$5.75 before 2026 ends, according to trader pricing on the USD/BRL 2026 high odds page. October US inflation came in hotter than forecast and drove the currency to R$5.5860 on Nov. 10. That was a 1.46% gain on the day and its fourth straight advance. It was also the highest close since July 31, 2025, when the pair finished at R$5.6015, Exame reported. Intraday, the dollar traded between R$5.5199 and R$5.6135.

On Kalshi, the 5.75 Or Above contract in the USD/BRL high in 2026 market rose from 57% to 70% over three days through Nov. 11. That is a gain of about 13 percentage points and roughly 32 percentage points above its period low of 38%.

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USD/BRL high in 20​26

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

5.75 Or AboveIn this story

69%

Kalshi1.37x73¢

6 Or Above

49%

Kalshi2.04x49¢

6.25 Or Above

34%

Kalshi2.94x34¢

6.5 Or Above

7%

Kalshi10.00x10¢

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Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October against a 0.3% forecast. Core CPI rose 0.3% against 0.2%, which strengthened bets on a December Fed hike, according to Reuters via Investing.com. Before the release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller had said a core reading of 0.3% or more would justify a 50 basis point move. Domestically, Exame and Reuters cited Brazilian fiscal uncertainty and falling commodity prices. Reuters also pointed to Copom minutes that markets read as dovish. The dollar opened November at R$5.4385. Reaching the trigger requires about another 2.9% gain (5.75 / 5.5860 ≈ 1.029).

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What Could Confirm or Reverse the 5.75 Move

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The contract stepped from 57% to 70% around the Nov. 10 release of October US CPI.

Two developments would confirm the move: the dollar holding closes above R$5.5860, and Fed hike expectations climbing further. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has already said at least two more 25 basis point hikes are needed. A pullback in the dollar, softer US data, or easing Brazilian fiscal concerns would point the other way. Exame's analysts called a run to R$6 by December possible but unlikely without worsening fiscal expectations and capital outflows. They noted that year-end remittances could add pressure. The sources do not quantify how much of the rally came from US rates versus Brazilian fiscal factors.

The next test is the Fed's December decision, along with any Fed communication that responds to October's core reading.