Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026? Latest News

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Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

25,249.86 Or AboveIn this story

84%

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Background

The question is whether the Nasdaq-100 will finish 2026 positive. It resolves on the index's closing level on Dec. 31, 2026. The contract resolves YES if the index closes at or above 25,249.86, the level that marks a flat year. It is a single-date test with no averaging, so only the final close counts.

The key dynamic is the size of the cushion between the index and the 25,249.86 line, set against the index's volatility. A drop of about 6.4%, as on Nov. 5, was the worst day since March 2020. Pressure points include AI and chip sentiment, inflation data, Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve's Dec. 8-9 meeting, where a rate hike is widely expected. The market-implied probability is not a forecast.

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Nov. 11, 2026: Nasdaq-100 2026 Positive Odds Hit 82% as CoreWeave Beat Lifts Futures

Nasdaq-100 "25,249.86 or Above" Market Rises to 82% After CoreWeave Beat

The Nasdaq-100 is on track to finish 2026 positive, according to Kalshi's "25,249.86 Or Above" contract for "Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026?", which rose from 77% to 82% on Nov 11. The index closed at 27,740.80 on Nov 10, about 9.9% above the 25,249.86 level it must hold on Dec 31. That cushion survived a 6.4% plunge on Nov 5, the index's worst day since March 2020, and an October correction.

The rise came on the same morning that Nasdaq-100 futures climbed about 1.4% after CoreWeave beat earnings expectations and revived the AI trade. The contract traded at 76% on Nov 7, after the Nov 5 selloff.

Why the Move Stands Out: Hot CPI, Fed Hike Odds and a 5% 10-Year Yield

The bounce followed a day of macro pressure on tech. October CPI came in at 0.4% month over month against 0.3% expected, and core CPI came in at 0.3% against 0.2%. That report pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.74%. Fed funds pricing moved to roughly 91% to 100% odds of a 25-basis-point hike in December, with about 10% odds of a 50-basis-point move after Gov. Waller and Dallas Fed President Logan called for further tightening. Nvidia fell about 5.5% on the day.

Because the threshold already sat well below the Nov 10 close, the contract was a strong favorite at 77% before the move.

Analysts remain divided on how durable the bounce is. FOREX.com asks whether the rebound is a "slingshot rally or false dawn," and FXStreet flagged the index's move into correction in early November. Readers can track live pricing on the Nasdaq-100 finish-positive-in-2026 market.

The next dated checkpoint is the Fed decision on Dec 9. Markets already price a 25-basis-point hike as close to certain. A hike of that size would largely confirm current pricing. A 50-basis-point move or hawkish guidance would test the roughly 9.9% cushion above 25,249.86.

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Earlier Updates

Nov. 7, 2026: Nasdaq-100 2026 Positive Odds Slip to 76% After Nov. 5 Plunge

25,249.86 Or Above89% → 76%▼13

Democrats' sweeping Nov. 3 midterm wins raised fears of curbs on AI data center construction, and a chip rout followed weak results from Qualcomm and Arm. Yahoo Finance described investors stepping back from AI and tech, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index falling about 12% on Nov. 5 and Nvidia losing roughly 9%.