Flint Leads Forstag 45.9% to 45.4% in Poll; MT-01 Odds Fall to 70%

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Sam Forstag's Odds: Aaron Flint Leads 45.9% to 45.4% in the Latest Poll Located, Market at 70%

Sam Forstag (D) remains the underdog to Aaron Flint (R) in the "MT-01 House winner?" market. Flint fell from 76% to 70% over the three days after the two candidates debated in Missoula on Oct. 13. The latest poll located in this check, from American Pulse Research & Polling (fieldwork Sep. 19-24, likely voters), shows Flint at 45.9% and Forstag at 45.4%. No poll located in this check was fielded after the debate. We could not establish what caused the market move.

Public polling located as of 2026-10-14. Two leading candidates in the newest row; other candidates omitted. Compare like-for-like respondent bases; pollster methods may differ.

Pollster / source	Fieldwork dates	Sample base	Aaron Flint	Sam Forstag	Undecided
American Pulse Research & Polling	2026-09-19 to 2026-09-24	likely voters	45.9%	45.4%	3.4%
Impact Research	2026-09-20 to 2026-09-23	likely voters	44%	47%	7%
Public Policy Polling	2026-09-09 to 2026-09-10	registered voters	43%	45%	12%
Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics	2026-08-27 to 2026-09-07	registered voters	42%	41%	11%
Impact Research	2026-06-22 to 2026-06-25	likely voters	44%	44%	7%
Upswing Research	2026-04-30 to 2026-05-05	likely voters	48%	43%	9%

These are the polls located in this check, not a complete list. Results show each candidate's share of all respondents, including Libertarian Nick Sheedy and undecided voters. Impact Research is a Democratic-aligned partisan pollster.

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Are There Polls for the Flint vs. Forstag MT-01 Race?

Yes. The located September polls show a race within a few points either way. American Pulse has Flint up 0.5 points. Impact Research (Sep. 20-23, likely voters) has Forstag ahead 47% to 44%, with Sheedy at 2% and 7% undecided. The Flathead Beacon describes the contest as a dead heat.

The market makes a different kind of claim. A poll margin measures vote intention at the time of fieldwork. A 70% implied probability is traders' price on Flint winning the seat. A near-tied poll and a favored candidate are therefore not in conflict. They measure different things. The market's 30% remainder is the probability of any other winner, not Forstag's chances alone.

On Oct. 14, Kalshi priced Flint at 72% and Polymarket priced him at 68%. That 70% figure is a market price. It is not a poll and not a forecast model. The fieldwork for every located poll ended before Oct. 13, so none of them can show whether the debate shifted voter preferences.

Live market odds

3 venues

MT-01 House winner?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Aaron Flint (R)In this story

55%

Polymarket USBest price1.82x55¢Polymarket1.82x55¢Kalshi1.79x56¢

Sam Forstag (D)

45%

KalshiBest price2.22x45¢Polymarket US2.17x46¢Polymarket2.13x47¢

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1D7D30D

Values cover the recorded three-day window only. The 70% figure is the low within that window, not an all-time low.

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What Would Change the Picture for Flint and Forstag in MT-01?

A poll fielded after Oct. 13 would be the first in this check to capture opinion after the debate. Until one appears, readers have two separate pieces of evidence: September polls showing a near-tie and a market that favors Flint. Track prices on the MT-01 House winner odds page.