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Live prediction market odds for MT-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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MT-01 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Aaron Flint (R)70¢1.43xKalshiSam Forstag (D)29¢3.45xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Aaron Flint (R) about a 69.3% chance. Sam Forstag (D) follows at 30.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Traders give Aaron Flint (R) about a 69.3% chance. Sam Forstag (D) follows at 30.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MT-01 House race in the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest will play a crucial role in determining the balance of power in Congress, influencing legislative priorities and national policies.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
AF
Aaron Flint (R)ARB
69%
Kalshi70¢
Polymarket US72¢
Polymarket69¢
Kalshi1.43x70¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
69.0%68¢70¢30¢32¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
71.0%71¢72¢28¢29¢
PolymarketPolymarket
68.0%67¢69¢31¢33¢
SF
Sam Forstag (D)ARB
30%
Kalshi29¢
Polymarket US29¢
Polymarket33¢
Kalshi3.45x29¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
29.0%28¢29¢71¢72¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
29.0%28¢29¢71¢72¢
PolymarketPolymarket
32.0%32¢33¢67¢68¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Aaron Flint (R)

Aaron Flint is a Republican candidate for Montana's 1st congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House elections. He served as a State Director for Congressman Ryan Zinke from 2016 to 2017 and has been a statewide radio talk show host since 2009. Flint's military service as a U.S. Army officer from 2002 to 2024 and his extensive experience in Montana media make him a notable contender in this race.

About Sam Forstag (D)

Sam Forstag is a Democratic candidate for Montana's 1st Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House elections. He has served as a smokejumper and union leader, advocating for workers' rights and public lands. His experience in public service and labor advocacy makes him a notable contender in this race.

Smart Trade Router

$
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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Aaron Flint (R)

69.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MT-01 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MT-1 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MT-01 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the MT-01 House race?

Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout trends. Additionally, national political climate and local issues can sway public opinion.

How do prediction markets work for elections?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom of market participants regarding the likelihood of various candidates winning.

Why is the MT-01 House race significant?

The MT-01 House race is significant as it could impact the overall control of the House of Representatives. A shift in power may lead to changes in legislative agendas and priorities.

What does the MT-01 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MT-01 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Aaron Flint (R): 69.0¢ on Kalshi, 68.0¢ on Polymarket, 71.0¢ on Polymarket US; Sam Forstag (D): 29.0¢ on Kalshi, 32.0¢ on Polymarket, 29.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Sam Forstag Hits 39% in MT-01 With No New Polls Behind the MovePrediction markets have pushed Forstag 12 points higher in three days while structural models hold at 18%. No poll or news event explains the gap.Sep 4, 2026Republican Odds in MT-01 Jump 8 Points as Forstag's Fundraising EdgePrediction markets price the Republican Party at 62% in MT-01, up 8 points in 72 hours, even as Forstag holds a $80K fundraising lead over Flint.Sep 1, 2026Forstag Tied With Flint at 44%, MT-01 Market Falls to Toss-UpRepublican odds dropped 11 points in three days to 50% after a June poll showed a 44-44 tie and Forstag posted a $1.38M fundraising edge.Aug 29, 2026GOP Sits at 56% in MT-01 House RaceAn 8-point drop in three days reflects Seth Bodnar's independent bid creating a three-way vote split in a district Trump carried by double digits.
Aug 15, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

MT-01 Democratic nominee?LOSTPre-event: 13%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

MT-01 Democratic nominee?

Resolved

2026-06-02

LOSTSam Forstag (D)
Pre-event: 13%