Who Will Win Best Actress at the Oscars? Latest News

Live market odds

4 venues

Oscar winner: Best Actress

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket and Predict.fun.

Julianne MooreIn this story

84%

PolymarketBest price1.19x84¢Kalshi1.18x85¢Polymarket US1.16x86¢Predict.fun1.15x87¢

Inde Navarrette

10%

Polymarket USBest price11.11x9¢Kalshi8.33x12¢Polymarket7.69x13¢Predict.fun7.41x13.5¢

Renate Reinsve

2%

Polymarket USBest price100.00x1¢Kalshi50.00x2¢Polymarket47.62x2.1¢

Sandra Hüller

2%

KalshiBest price50.00x2¢Polymarket US50.00x2¢Polymarket18.52x5.4¢

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Background

The market asks who will win the Best Actress Oscar at the 99th Academy Awards, which air on March 14, 2027. Nominations are announced on January 21, 2027, so the field of five is not yet set and prices reflect a pre-nomination field. Julianne Moore, for The Debut, is the favorite. Inde Navarrette (Obsession) is the main alternative, and Gold Derby also tracks Olivia Wilde (The Invite). The Debut opens in theaters on Dec. 11, 2026.

The dynamic that matters most is that the nominations act as the first hard test of every price. A favorite's odds assume she makes the final five, and a snub would remove a contender entirely, while a nomination keeps a rival alive. The award is decided in a single vote with one winner, so a strong performance in a weaker-reviewed film can still be overtaken if a rival arrives with better-reviewed work.

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Nov. 13, 2026: Julianne Moore's Best Actress Odds Hit 84% as Navarrette Slips

Julianne Moore Is the 84% Favorite for Best Actress for The Debut

Julianne Moore is the strong favorite to win Best Actress at the 2027 Oscars for The Debut. Her price in the Oscar winner: Best Actress market rose from 75% to 84%, a gain of about 9 percentage points. Kalshi's AI Digest shows her at 84% on its own board, with Polymarket at 83%. The Academy has not announced nominations, so the price reflects a pre-nomination field, not a result.

The rally reverses the September dip. Moore traded at 62% on Sept. 23 after a mixed reception at TIFF. Kalshi and Polymarket sit within about one point of each other, so the two venues broadly agree on her price.

Inde Navarrette's Slide to 11% Narrows the Best Actress Field

Moore's gain came as her closest market rival lost ground. Inde Navarrette, the Best Actress contender for Obsession, fell about 6 percentage points to 11% on Kalshi, according to the AI Digest. Navarrette's drop accounts for most of Moore's roughly 9-point gain. Navarrette had discussed Obsession's awards buzz in a Playlist interview.

Gold Derby has Moore leading its Best Actress forecasts, with Olivia Wilde (The Invite) among the names it tracks. The Debut opens in theaters on Dec. 11, 2026.

What Could Confirm or Reverse Moore's Odds: Nominations on January 21

The Academy announces nominations on January 21, 2027, and the 99th Academy Awards air March 14, 2027. Moore's 84% assumes she makes the final five, so the nomination announcement is the first hard test of the price. Navarrette's 11% faces the same test: a snub would remove her from contention, and a nomination would keep her alive as the main alternative. Track the live price on the Oscar winner: Best Actress market page.

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Earlier Updates

Sept. 23, 2026: Julianne Moore Drops 9 Points in Best Actress Market After Mixed TIFF

Julianne Moore70% → 62%▼8

On Sept. 23, 2026, critics reviewing Jesse Eisenberg's The Debut after its TIFF embargo lifted praised Julianne Moore's performance while faulting the film's tone. The Daily Beast's Nick Schager called her work a "game lead performance" but said the film "never finds a suitable tone." Moore remains the Best Actress frontrunner, though the reviews raised doubts about her standing.