Who Will Become the Next Prime Minister of Sweden? Polls and Latest News

The market asks who will be Prime Minister of Sweden after the 13 September 2026 general election, and it resolves on 1 January 2028. Caretaker Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson holds the Speaker's exploratory mandate for a Moderate, Centre, Christian Democrat and Liberal minority government, and his report to Speaker Andreas Norlén is due 17 November. Magdalena Andersson is seeking another turn, proposing a Social Democrat, Centre and Green government. The Riksdag has already rejected Andersson (15 October) and Centre leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist (3 November).

What matters most is the Centre Party. The red-green parties hold 176 of 349 seats and the Tidö parties hold 173, so neither bloc is secure without Centre crossing over or abstaining. The Sweden Democrats have said they would abstain in a Kristersson vote. Two of the four permitted PM votes have been used. If all four fail, an extraordinary election must be held within three months.

Nov. 13, 2026: Kristersson's Chances of Staying PM Fall Amid Centre Party Talks

Will Ulf Kristersson Remain Prime Minister of Sweden? Market Odds Fall to 48%

Ulf Kristersson's chances of remaining Prime Minister of Sweden fell to 48% on Nov. 13, 2026, in the Prime Minister of Sweden after the general election market, down from 63% three days earlier. He holds the Speaker's exploratory mandate for an M-C-KD-L minority government, his report to Speaker Andreas Norlén is due Nov. 17, and the Centre Party is also negotiating with Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson.

That is a drop of roughly 15 percentage points. Kalshi showed 46% and Polymarket 51%, a spread of about 5 points.

Why Kristersson's Odds Dropped Despite the Sweden Democrats Dropping Their Cabinet Demand

The decline came despite a week of developments that favored him on paper. Speaker Norlén extended Kristersson's deadline from Nov. 10 to Nov. 17 after Kristersson asked for more time, according to SVT. The Sweden Democrats had already dropped their demand for cabinet posts and said they would abstain in a Kristersson vote. On Facebook, Kristersson described talks among M, C, KD and L as "open and trusting" but added: "It is not simple."

The problem is the Centre Party. Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist's party is negotiating with both Moderates and Social Democrats, and it has given both sides until Friday to present a "totalpaket," a full package deal. Expressen reported, citing sources, that the C leader prefers working with the right and that the party is split. Andersson has meanwhile proposed an S-C-MP government in close cooperation with the Left Party and asked for another turn at the mandate. The sources do not show which side the Centre Party will choose, so the 48% reflects traders reassessing that choice, not a settled outcome.

The parliamentary arithmetic explains why the Centre Party matters so much. The opposition parties (S, V, C, MP) hold 176 of 349 seats, compared with 173 for the Tidö parties. A Kristersson government therefore depends on C crossing over or abstaining.

The case for Kristersson

The independent analysis still leans his way. SVT's Mats Knutson titled his assessment "Fördel Kristersson eller extraval", meaning advantage Kristersson or a snap election. SVT also reported concern inside the Left Party that Kristersson will become prime minister. The Left Party demands cabinet seats in any Andersson government, which complicates the S-C-MP option.

Are There Polls for Ulf Kristersson's Chances of Staying Prime Minister?

No poll measures whether Kristersson will win a Riksdag vote. Voter-intention polls measure party support and leader trust. They show Kristersson's position improving with voters. SVT/Verian, published Nov. 11, put the Social Democrats at 26.1%, their lowest under Andersson, with the Moderates at 23.3% and the Tidö parties at 50.6% against 47.7% for the red-green side. An Infostat survey for Expressen found 46.5% trust Kristersson compared with 34.8% for Andersson.

These numbers and the market measure different things. The election took place on Sept. 13, and the seats are fixed. The result depends on coalition bargaining among 349 sitting members, not on how voters would vote today. The 48% is a trader-implied probability of the outcome. It is not a poll. The polls favor Kristersson while the market rates him a coin flip, and that gap reflects the Centre Party's two-track negotiations, which polling cannot capture.

What to Watch Before the Nov 17 Report to the Speaker

Friday, Nov. 13: The Centre Party's deadline for S and M to present a "totalpaket."
Nov. 17: Kristersson reports to Norlén. The Speaker will then meet all party leaders before announcing the next step. SVT's Knutson wrote that a prime minister vote could follow as soon as late next week.
Vote count: Two of four permitted PM votes have already been used. Andersson was rejected on Oct. 15 and Thand Ringqvist on Nov. 3. If all four votes fail, an extraordinary election must be held within three months. Andersson has argued against a third vote on Kristersson without a secured majority.

The contract asks who is Prime Minister of Sweden after the general election and resolves by Jan. 1, 2028. Check the market rules for the exact settlement criteria, including how a caretaker period or a snap election is treated.

Earlier Updates

Nov. 11, 2026: Kristersson's Odds of Staying Sweden's PM Slip Despite Extra Week

Ulf Kristersson53% → 44%▼9

On Nov. 11, Ulf Kristersson's chances of remaining Sweden's prime minister slipped after Speaker Andreas Norlén extended his mandate by a week, with a report due Nov. 17. Andersson, who asked for another chance, depends on the Left Party dropping its cabinet demand, while Kristersson needs the Centre Party to commit to backing him.

Nov. 8, 2026: Andersson's PM Odds Fall as Sweden Democrats Drop Cabinet Demand

Magdalena Andersson70% → 44%▼26

On Nov. 6, the Sweden Democrats dropped their demand for cabinet posts and said they would tolerate a Kristersson-led government, which opened a path for a four-party minority government of M, KD, L and C. The Speaker then extended Ulf Kristersson's exploratory mandate by a few more days. Kristersson briefly passed Andersson on the Polymarket market that day, before Andersson regained ground after she said her Social Democrats would go into full opposition against a Tidö 2 government.

Nov. 6, 2026: Will Andersson Become Sweden's PM? Odds Rise to 72% Despite Kristersson

Magdalena Andersson64% → 72%▲8

On November 6, Polymarket traders raised Magdalena Andersson's chances of becoming Sweden's prime minister to 72%, as Ulf Kristersson began an exploratory mandate with a November 10 deadline. Two days earlier, on November 5, Andersson publicly rebuked Left Party deputy leader Ida Gabrielsson over her remarks that the Centre Party would have to accept left-wing policy, according to SvD. Political scientist Jonas Hinnfors told Sweden Herald that Kristersson's attempt will probably fail.

Nov. 2, 2026: Kristersson's PM Odds Rise to 26% as Thand Ringqvist Vote Nears

Ulf Kristersson21% → 26%▲5

On 2 November 2026, Ulf Kristersson's odds of becoming Sweden's prime minister rose as Riksdag Speaker Andreas Norlén prepared to put Centre leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist to a vote on 3 November. If she is rejected, Kristersson receives the mandate to form a government, but the Tidö parties hold 173 seats to the red-green bloc's 176 and would need outside support.

Oct. 27, 2026: Will Magdalena Andersson Become Prime Minister? Centre Bid Ends

Magdalena Andersson76% → 72%▼4

On 26 Oct, Centre leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist ended her week-long exploration without parliamentary support for a centre government and returned the task to Speaker Andreas Norlén, according to Dagens Barometer. Thand Ringqvist's decision followed the Riksdag's 248-99 rejection of Magdalena Andersson on 15 Oct.

Who Will Become the Next Prime Minister of Sweden? Polls and Latest News

Prime Minister of Sweden after the general election?

Ulf KristerssonIn this story

Magdalena Andersson

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